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Bayesian optimization is a coherent, ubiquitous approach to decision-making under uncertainty, with applications including multi-arm bandits, active learning, and black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization selects decisions (i.e.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Samuel Stanton , Wesley Maddox , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Adversarial examples have been shown to cause neural networks to fail on a wide range of vision and language tasks, but recent work has claimed that Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are inherently robust to adversarial perturbations. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-01 Yunzhen Feng , Tim G. J. Rudner , Nikolaos Tsilivis , Julia Kempe

Neural networks utilize the softmax as a building block in classification tasks, which contains an overconfidence problem and lacks an uncertainty representation ability. As a Bayesian alternative to the softmax, we consider a random…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-30 Taejong Joo , Uijung Chung , Min-Gwan Seo

We propose and investigate probabilistic guarantees for the adversarial robustness of classification algorithms. While traditional formal verification approaches for robustness are intractable and sampling-based approaches do not provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Peter Blohm , Patrick Indri , Thomas Gärtner , Sagar Malhotra

We study the out-of-sample properties of robust empirical optimization problems with smooth $\phi$-divergence penalties and smooth concave objective functions, and develop a theory for data-driven calibration of the non-negative "robustness…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-20 Jun-Ya Gotoh , Michael Jong Kim , Andrew E. B. Lim

Bayesian optimization is a popular framework for efficiently tackling black-box search problems. As a rule, these algorithms operate by iteratively choosing what to evaluate next until some predefined budget has been exhausted. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-12 James T. Wilson

In the realm of supervised learning, Bayesian learning has shown robust predictive capabilities under input and parameter perturbations. Inspired by these findings, we demonstrate the robustness properties of Bayesian learning in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-17 Nardos Ayele Ashenafi , Wankun Sirichotiyakul , Aykut C. Satici

We study the robustness of conformal prediction, a powerful tool for uncertainty quantification, to label noise. Our analysis tackles both regression and classification problems, characterizing when and how it is possible to construct…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-27 Bat-Sheva Einbinder , Shai Feldman , Stephen Bates , Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Asaf Gendler , Yaniv Romano

In this study, we explore the inherent trade-off between accuracy and robustness in neural networks, drawing an analogy to the uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics. We propose that neural networks are subject to an uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-17 Jun-Jie Zhang , Dong-Xiao Zhang , Jian-Nan Chen , Long-Gang Pang , Deyu Meng

A systematic, comparative investigation into the effects of low-quality data reveals a stark spectrum of robustness across modern probabilistic models. We find that autoregressive language models, from token prediction to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Liu Peng , Yaochu Jin

Entropic uncertainty relations are powerful tools, especially in quantum cryptography. They typically bound the amount of uncertainty a third-party adversary may hold on a measurement outcome as a result of the measurement overlap. However,…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-05-18 Walter O. Krawec

Uncertainty quantification is a central challenge in reliable and trustworthy machine learning. Naive measures such as last-layer scores are well-known to yield overconfident estimates in the context of overparametrized neural networks.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Lucas Clarté , Bruno Loureiro , Florent Krzakala , Lenka Zdeborová

In safety-critical deep learning applications, robustness measures the ability of neural models that handle imperceptible perturbations in input data, which may lead to potential safety hazards. Existing pre-deployment robustness assessment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-27 Wenchuan Mu , Kwan Hui Lim

Neural networks are known to be highly sensitive to adversarial examples. These may arise due to different factors, such as random initialization, or spurious correlations in the learning problem. To better understand these factors, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-05 Elvis Dohmatob , Alberto Bietti

Balancing safety and efficiency when planning in crowded scenarios with uncertain dynamics is challenging where it is imperative to accomplish the robot's mission without incurring any safety violations. Typically, chance constraints are…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Khaled A. Mustafa , Oscar de Groot , Xinwei Wang , Jens Kober , Javier Alonso-Mora

Methods for reasoning under uncertainty are a key building block of accurate and reliable machine learning systems. Bayesian methods provide a general framework to quantify uncertainty. However, because of model misspecification and the use…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-03 Volodymyr Kuleshov , Nathan Fenner , Stefano Ermon

We propose an evaluation framework for class probability estimates (CPEs) in the presence of label uncertainty, which is commonly observed as diagnosis disagreement between experts in the medical domain. We also formalize evaluation metrics…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-23 Takahiro Mimori , Keiko Sasada , Hirotaka Matsui , Issei Sato

This paper examines the phenomenon of probabilistic robustness overestimation in TRADES, a prominent adversarial training method. Our study reveals that TRADES sometimes yields disproportionately high PGD validation accuracy compared to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-11 Jonathan Weiping Li , Ren-Wei Liang , Cheng-Han Yeh , Cheng-Chang Tsai , Kuanchun Yu , Chun-Shien Lu , Shang-Tse Chen

Chance-constrained problems involve stochastic components in the constraints which can be violated with a small probability. We investigate the impact of different types of chance constraints on the performance of iterative search…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2024-05-30 Saba Sadeghi Ahouei , Jacob de Nobel , Aneta Neumann , Thomas Bäck , Frank Neumann

Modern neural networks have proven to be powerful function approximators, providing state-of-the-art performance in a multitude of applications. They however fall short in their ability to quantify confidence in their predictions - this is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-29 Alex J. Chan , Ahmed M. Alaa , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar
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