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In this paper, we tackle the resolution of chance-constrained problems reformulated via Sample Average Approximation. The resulting data-driven deterministic reformulation takes the form of a large-scale mixed-integer program cursed with…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-27 Álvaro Porras , Concepción Domínguez , Juan M. Morales , Salvador Pineda

This paper proposes niching importance sampling, a framework that combines concepts from reliability analysis, e.g. Markov chains, importance sampling, and relative cross entropy minimisation, with niching techniques from evolutionary…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-09 Hugh J. Kinnear , F. A. DiazDelaO

Exploring the dependence between covariates across distributions is crucial for many applications. Copulas serve as a powerful tool for modeling joint variable dependencies and have been effectively applied in various practical contexts due…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-09 Sumin Wang , Chenxian Huang , Yongdao Zhou , Min-Qian Liu

Rare-event simulation techniques, such as importance sampling (IS), constitute powerful tools to speed up challenging estimation of rare catastrophic events. These techniques often leverage the knowledge and analysis on underlying system…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-04 Mansur Arief , Yuanlu Bai , Wenhao Ding , Shengyi He , Zhiyuan Huang , Henry Lam , Ding Zhao

This paper advocates proximal Markov Chain Monte Carlo (ProxMCMC) as a flexible and general Bayesian inference framework for constrained or regularized estimation. Originally introduced in the Bayesian imaging literature, ProxMCMC employs…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-27 Xinkai Zhou , Qiang Heng , Eric C. Chi , Hua Zhou

We present a novel statistical inference framework for convex empirical risk minimization, using approximate stochastic Newton steps. The proposed algorithm is based on the notion of finite differences and allows the approximation of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-06 Tianyang Li , Anastasios Kyrillidis , Liu Liu , Constantine Caramanis

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an efficient Bayesian sampling method that can make distant proposals in the parameter space by simulating a Hamiltonian dynamical system. Despite its popularity in machine learning and data science, HMC is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-02 Ziming Liu , Zheng Zhang

The goal of this paper is to develop provably efficient importance sampling Monte Carlo methods for the estimation of rare events within the class of linear stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). We find that if a spectral gap…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-05 Michael Salins , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

Accurate surrogate construction for PDE-driven high-dimensional rare-event simulation is challenging when performance evaluations are expensive. Since a globally accurate surrogate may require many high-fidelity evaluations, adaptive…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-18 Zhiwei Gao , George Karniadakis

The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are popular when considering sampling from a high-dimensional random variable $\mathbf{x}$ with possibly unnormalised probability density $p$ and observed data $\mathbf{d}$. However, MCMC requires…

Computation · Statistics 2020-03-11 Haoyun Ying , Keheng Mao , Klaus Mosegaard

Inference for models with recursively defined likelihoods is computationally demanding, limiting scalability to large datasets. We propose a stabilised weighted subsampling methodology for accelerated inference based on an unbiased…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Matias Quiroz , Aishwarya Bhaskaran , Zixuan Wang , Thomas Goodwin

We present a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from multivariate Gaussian distributions in which the target space is constrained by linear and quadratic inequalities or products thereof. The Hamiltonian equations of motion can be…

Computation · Statistics 2013-06-06 Ari Pakman , Liam Paninski

Capturing multimodal natures is essential for stochastic pedestrian trajectory prediction, to infer a finite set of future trajectories. The inferred trajectories are based on observation paths and the latent vectors of potential decisions…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-05-17 Inhwan Bae , Jin-Hwi Park , Hae-Gon Jeon

The Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) is a deterministic approach to Bayesian inference on latent Gaussian models (LGMs) and focuses on fast and accurate approximation of posterior marginals for the parameters in the models.…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-05 Martin Outzen Berild , Sara Martino , Virgilio Gómez-Rubio , Håvard Rue

Least-squares approximation is one of the most important methods for recovering an unknown function from data. While in many applications the data is fixed, in many others there is substantial freedom to choose where to sample. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-11 Ben Adcock

Intractable generative models are models for which the likelihood is unavailable but sampling is possible. Most approaches to parameter inference in this setting require the computation of some discrepancy between the data and the…

Computation · Statistics 2022-07-05 Ziang Niu , Johanna Meier , François-Xavier Briol

Nonparametric resampling methods such as Direct Sampling are powerful tools to simulate new datasets preserving important data features such as spatial patterns from observed datasets while using only minimal assumptions. However, such…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-08 Thomas Opitz , Denis Allard , Grégoire Mariéthoz

We consider a family of unadjusted generalized HMC samplers, which includes standard position HMC samplers and discretizations of the underdamped Langevin process. A detailed analysis and optimization of the parameters is conducted in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-24 Nicolaï Gouraud , Pierre Le Bris , Adrien Majka , Pierre Monmarché

We develop sampling methods, which consist of Gaussian invariant versions of random walk Metropolis (RWM), Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA) and second order Hessian or Manifold MALA. Unlike standard RWM and MALA we show that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-27 Michalis K. Titsias , Angelos Alexopoulos , Siran Liu , Petros Dellaportas

This work explores a novel perspective on solving nonconvex and nonsmooth optimization problems by leveraging sampling based methods. Instead of treating the objective function purely through traditional (often deterministic) optimization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-21 Nahom Seyoum , Haoxiang You