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The field of time series forecasting has garnered significant attention in recent years, prompting the development of advanced models like TimeSieve, which demonstrates impressive performance. However, an analysis reveals certain…

Forecasting time series with irregular temporal structures remains challenging for universal pre-trained models. Existing approaches often assume regular sampling or depend heavily on imputation, limiting their applicability in real-world…

We formulate a new inference task in the domain of multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF), called Variable Subset Forecast (VSF), where only a small subset of the variables is available during inference. Variables are absent during…

Time series forecasting is a fundamental task with broad applications, yet conventional methods often treat data as discrete sequences, overlooking their origin as noisy samples of continuous processes. Crucially, discrete noisy…

A reliable and efficient representation of multivariate time series is crucial in various downstream machine learning tasks. In multivariate time series forecasting, each variable depends on its historical values and there are…

Albeit, the implicit feedback based recommendation problem - when only the user history is available but there are no ratings - is the most typical setting in real-world applications, it is much less researched than the explicit feedback…

Causal inference is known to be very challenging when only observational data are available. Randomized experiments are often costly and impractical and in instrumental variable regression the number of instruments has to exceed the number…

Current health policy calls for greater use of evidence based care delivery services to improve patient quality and safety outcomes. Care delivery is complex, with interacting and interdependent components that challenge traditional…

Recovering meaningful concepts from language model activations is a central aim of interpretability. While existing feature extraction methods aim to identify concepts that are independent directions, it is unclear if this assumption can…

Machine learning based traffic forecasting models leverage sophisticated spatiotemporal auto-correlations to provide accurate predictions of city-wide traffic states. However, existing methods assume a reliable and unbiased forecasting…

Time-series forecasting plays a critical role in many real-world applications. Although increasingly powerful models have been developed and achieved superior results on benchmark datasets, through a fine-grained sample-level inspection, we…

Accurate prediction of the need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) in intensive care units (ICUs) patients is crucial for timely interventions and resource allocation. However, variability in patient populations, clinical practices,…

While many advances in time series models focus exclusively on numerical data, research on multimodal time series, particularly those involving contextual textual information, remains in its infancy. With recent progress in large language…

Considerable research efforts have been devoted to the development of motion planning algorithms, which form a cornerstone of the autonomous driving system (ADS). Nonetheless, acquiring an interactive and secure trajectory for the ADS…

As time evolves, data within specific domains exhibit predictability that motivates time series forecasting to predict future trends from historical data. However, current deep forecasting methods can achieve promising performance but…

Accurate long-term predictions are the foundations for many machine learning applications and decision-making processes. Traditional time series approaches for prediction often focus on either autoregressive modeling, which relies solely on…

Detecting early warning signals in climatic time series is essential for anticipating critical transitions and tipping points. Common statistical indicators include increased variance and lag-one autocorrelation prior to bifurcation points.…

We propose a Weighted Autoregressive Varying gatE (WAVE) attention mechanism equipped with both Autoregressive (AR) and Moving-average (MA) components. It can adapt to various attention mechanisms, enhancing and decoupling their ability to…

This paper investigates the role of high-dimensional information sets in the context of Markov switching models with time varying transition probabilities. Markov switching models are commonly employed in empirical macroeconomic research…

Intervention-based model steering offers a lightweight and interpretable alternative to prompting and fine-tuning. However, by adapting strong optimization objectives from fine-tuning, current methods are susceptible to overfitting and…