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Traditional approaches to turbulence forecasting often rely on correlation-based criteria for input selection. These methods may select variables that correlate with the target without truly driving its dynamics, which limits…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-09-30 Álvaro Martínez-Sánchez , Adrián Lozano-Durán

We introduce a novel framework for decomposing interventional causal effects into synergistic, redundant, and unique components, building on the intuition of Partial Information Decomposition (PID) and the principle of M\"obius inversion.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Abel Jansma

We introduce an information-theoretic method for quantifying causality in chaotic systems. The approach, referred to as IT-causality, quantifies causality by measuring the information gained about future events conditioned on the knowledge…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-11-01 Adrián Lozano-Durán , Gonzalo Arranz , Yuenong Ling

Causality plays a central role in understanding interactions between variables in complex systems. These systems often exhibit state-dependent causal relationships, where both the strength and direction of causality vary with the value of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-08-05 Álvaro Martínez-Sánchez , Adrián Lozano-Durán

Drug synergy prediction is a critical task in the development of effective combination therapies for complex diseases, including cancer. Although existing methods have shown promising results, they often operate as black-box predictors that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-05 Yi Luo , Haochen Zhao , Xiao Liang , Yiwei Liu , Yuye Zhang , Xinyu Li , Jianxin Wang

Redundancy represents a strategy for achieving high availability. However, various factors, known as singleness factors, necessitate corresponding redundancy measures. The absence of a systematic approach for identifying these singleness…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Hong Su

Causality is a central topic in scientific inquiry, yet for complex systems, the identification and analysis of synergistic causation remain a challenging and fundamental problem. In the context of causal relations among multivariate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-06 Mingzhe Yang , Shuo Wang , Jiang Zhang

Emergence and causality are two fundamental concepts for understanding complex systems. They are interconnected. On one hand, emergence refers to the phenomenon where macroscopic properties cannot be solely attributed to the cause of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-02-27 Bing Yuan , Zhang Jiang , Aobo Lyu , Jiayun Wu , Zhipeng Wang , Mingzhe Yang , Kaiwei Liu , Muyun Mou , Peng Cui

Causal disentanglement has great potential for capturing complex situations. However, there is a lack of practical and efficient approaches. It is already known that most unsupervised disentangling methods are unable to produce identifiable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-14 Heejeong Nam

Over the past two decades, the rapid surge in data-intensive computational techniques for statistical modeling may have had the effect of diminishing the use of applied mathematics in causal scientific inquiry. In this paper, co-authored by…

History and Philosophy of Physics · Physics 2026-05-13 Marzieh Asgari-Targhi , Amene Asgari-Targhi , Mahboubeh Asgari-Targhi , Edward J. , Hall

Causal decomposition has provided a powerful tool to analyze health disparity problems, by assessing the proportion of disparity caused by each mediator. However, most of these methods lack \emph{policy implications}, as they fail to…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-21 Xinwei Sun , Xiangyu Zheng , Jim Weinstein

While probabilistic models describe the dependence structure between observed variables, causal models go one step further: they predict, for example, how cognitive functions are affected by external interventions that perturb neuronal…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2021-04-12 Sebastian Weichwald , Jonas Peters

Inference of causality in time series has been principally based on the prediction paradigm. Nonetheless, the predictive causality approach may overlook the simultaneous and reciprocal nature of causal interactions observed in real world…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-10-24 Albert C. Yang , Norden E. Huang , Chung-Kang Peng

This paper introduces a novel decomposition framework to explain heterogeneity in causal effects observed across different studies, considering both observational and randomized settings. We present a formal decomposition of between-study…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-18 Brian Gilbert , Ivan Dıaz , Kara E. Rudolph , Nicholas Williams , Tat-Thang Vo

Causation discovery without manipulation is considered a crucial problem to a variety of applications. The state-of-the-art solutions are applicable only when large numbers of samples are available or the problem domain is sufficiently…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-07-06 Ruichu Cai , Zhenjie Zhang , Zhifeng Hao

Causality and causal inference have emerged as core research areas at the interface of modern statistics and domains including biomedical sciences, social sciences, computer science, and beyond. The field's inherently interdisciplinary…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Carlos Cinelli , Avi Feller , Guido Imbens , Edward Kennedy , Sara Magliacane , Jose Zubizarreta

Multivariate time series in domains such as finance, climate science, and healthcare often exhibit long-term trends, seasonal patterns, and short-term fluctuations, complicating causal inference under non-stationarity and autocorrelation.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-29 Muhammad Hasan Ferdous , Md Osman Gani

The fundamental challenge of drawing causal inference is that counterfactual outcomes are not fully observed for any unit. Furthermore, in observational studies, treatment assignment is likely to be confounded. Many statistical methods have…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-01 Harsh Parikh , Carlos Varjao , Louise Xu , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

In the univariate case, we show that by comparing the individual complexities of univariate cause and effect, one can identify the cause and the effect, without considering their interaction at all. In our framework, complexities are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-25 Tomer Galanti , Ofir Nabati , Lior Wolf

We discuss recent work for causal inference and predictive robustness in a unifying way. The key idea relies on a notion of probabilistic invariance or stability: it opens up new insights for formulating causality as a certain risk…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-21 Peter Bühlmann
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