Related papers: Joint Prediction Regions for time-series models

Material extrusion is one of the most commonly used approaches within the additive manufacturing processes available. Despite its popularity and related technical advancements, process reliability and quality assurance remain only partially…

Metric graphs are useful tools for describing spatial domains like road and river networks, where spatial dependence act along the network. We take advantage of recent developments for such Gaussian Random Fields (GRFs), and consider joint…

There is a growing need for the ability to analyse interval-valued data. However, existing descriptive frameworks to achieve this ignore the process by which interval-valued data are typically constructed; namely by the aggregation of…

Multi-view data have been routinely collected in various fields of science and engineering. A general problem is to study the predictive association between multivariate responses and multi-view predictor sets, all of which can be of high…

Collecting multiple types of data on the same set of subjects is common in modern scientific applications including, genomics, metabolomics, and neuroimaging. Joint and Individual Variance Explained (JIVE) seeks a low-rank approximation of…

In projection pursuit regression (PPR), an unknown response function is approximated by the sum of M "ridge functions," which are flexible functions of one-dimensional projections of a multivariate input space. Traditionally, optimization…

In this work we consider the task of constructing prediction intervals in an inductive batch setting. We present a discriminative learning framework which optimizes the expected error rate under a budget constraint on the interval sizes.…

In statistics, forecast uncertainty is often quantified using a specified statistical model, though such approaches may be vulnerable to model misspecification, selection bias, and limited finite-sample validity. While bootstrapping can…

Introduction: Joint models are increasingly used in clinical trials. An important part of model building is to properly assess the descriptive and predictive ability of these models. Normalised prediction discrepancies (npd) and normalised…

This paper develops a new empirical Bayesian inference algorithm for solving a linear inverse problem given multiple measurement vectors (MMV) of under-sampled and noisy observable data. Specifically, by exploiting the joint sparsity across…

Mixture models are commonly used when data show signs of heterogeneity and, often, it is important to estimate the distribution of the latent variable responsible for that heterogeneity. This is a common problem for data taking values in a…

We present a probabilistic framework to accurately estimate dimensions of additively manufactured components. Using a dataset of 405 parts from nine production runs involving two machines, three polymer materials, and two-part…

Time series forecasting is critical for many applications, where deep learning-based point prediction models have demonstrated strong performance. However, in practical scenarios, there is also a need to quantify predictive uncertainty…

We consider the on-line predictive version of the standard problem of linear regression; the goal is to predict each consecutive response given the corresponding explanatory variables and all the previous observations. We are mainly…

Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters…

Discovery and learning of an underlying spatiotemporal hierarchy in sequential data is an important topic for machine learning. Despite this, little work has been done to explore hierarchical generative models that can flexibly adapt their…

Machine learning is revolutionizing global weather forecasting, with models that efficiently produce highly accurate forecasts. Apart from global forecasting there is also a large value in high-resolution regional weather forecasts,…

In this paper we address the problem of matching patterns in the so-called verification setting in which a novel, query pattern is verified against a single training pattern: the decision sought is whether the two match (i.e. belong to the…

Long-term time series forecasting plays an important role in various real-world scenarios. Recent deep learning methods for long-term series forecasting tend to capture the intricate patterns of time series by decomposition-based or…

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…