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Accurate estimates of long-term risk probabilities and their gradients are critical for many stochastic safe control methods. However, computing such risk probabilities in real-time and in unseen or changing environments is challenging.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-08-20 Zhuoyuan Wang , Yorie Nakahira

Computing collision-free trajectories is of prime importance for safe navigation. We present an approach for computing the collision probability under Gaussian distributed motion and sensing uncertainty with the robot and static obstacle…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-11-05 Antony Thomas , Fulvio Mastrogiovanni , Marco Baglietto

This paper presents a method to predict the evolution of a complex traffic scenario with multiple objects. The current state of the scenario is assumed to be known from sensors and the prediction is taking into account various hypotheses…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Parthasarathy Nadarajan , Michael Botsch

We present new algorithms to perform fast probabilistic collision queries between convex as well as non-convex objects. Our approach is applicable to general shapes, where one or more objects are represented using Gaussian probability…

Robotics · Computer Science 2016-10-13 Jae Sung Park , Chonhyon Park , Dinesh Manocha

Trajectory planning in dense, interactive traffic scenarios presents significant challenges for autonomous vehicles, primarily due to the uncertainty of human driver behavior and the non-convex nature of collision avoidance constraints.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-30 Erik Börve , Nikolce Murgovski , Leo Laine

We propose a Stochastic MPC (SMPC) formulation for path planning with autonomous vehicles in scenarios involving multiple agents with multi-modal predictions. The multi-modal predictions capture the uncertainty of urban driving in distinct…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Siddharth H. Nair , Hotae Lee , Eunhyek Joa , Yan Wang , H. Eric Tseng , Francesco Borrelli

This paper is on Bayesian inference for parametric statistical models that are defined by a stochastic simulator which specifies how data is generated. Exact sampling is then possible but evaluating the likelihood function is typically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-02 Borislav Ikonomov , Michael U. Gutmann

This paper presents a tool for addressing a key component in many algorithms for planning robot trajectories under uncertainty: evaluation of the safety of a robot whose actions are governed by a closed-loop feedback policy near a nominal…

Robotics · Computer Science 2017-06-05 Edward Schmerling , Marco Pavone

A method is developed to calculate collision probability in this paper. Based on the encounter geometric features of space objects, it is reasonable to separate the radial orbital motions from that in the cross section for most encounter…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-18 Xiaoli Xu , Yongqing Xiong

We present an efficient algorithm to compute tight upper bounds of collision probability between two objects with positional uncertainties, whose error distributions are represented with non-Gaussian forms. Our approach can handle noisy…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-12-17 Jae Sung Park , Dinesh Manocha

In this paper, we present a Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework based on path velocity decomposition paradigm for autonomous driving. The optimization underlying the MPC has a two layer structure wherein first, an appropriate path is…

Robotics · Computer Science 2018-03-09 Mithun Babu , Yash Oza , Arun Kumar Singh , K. Madhava Krishna , Shanti Medasani

We propose a Stochastic MPC (SMPC) formulation for autonomous driving at traffic intersections which incorporates multi-modal predictions of surrounding vehicles for collision avoidance constraints. The multi-modal predictions are obtained…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-03-01 Siddharth H. Nair , Vijay Govindarajan , Theresa Lin , Chris Meissen , H. Eric Tseng , Francesco Borrelli

Accurately assessing collision risk in dynamic traffic scenarios is a crucial requirement for trajectory planning in autonomous vehicles~(AVs) and enables a comprehensive safety evaluation of automated driving systems. To that end, this…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Han Wang , Yuneil Yeo , Antonio R. Paiva , Jean Utke , Maria Laura Delle Monache

Safety evaluation of self-driving technologies has been extensively studied. One recent approach uses Monte Carlo based evaluation to estimate the occurrence probabilities of safety-critical events as safety measures. These Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-19 Zhiyuan Huang , Mansur Arief , Henry Lam , Ding Zhao

The implementation of optimization-based motion coordination approaches in real world multi-agent systems remains challenging due to their high computational complexity and potential deadlocks. This paper presents a distributed model…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-06-03 Hongyu Zhou , Changliu Liu

Globally, motorcycles attract vast and varied users. However, since the rate of severe injury and fatality in motorcycle accidents far exceeds passenger car accidents, efforts have been directed toward increasing passive safety systems.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Philipp Rodegast , Steffen Maier , Jonas Kneifl , Jörg Fehr

Robot navigation around humans can be a challenging problem since human movements are hard to predict. Stochastic model predictive control (MPC) can account for such uncertainties and approximately bound the probability of a collision to…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-07-22 Yunfan Gao , Florian Messerer , Niels van Duijkeren , Moritz Diehl

This paper proposes vehicle motion planning methods with obstacle avoidance in tight spaces by incorporating polygonal approximations of both the vehicle and obstacles into a model predictive control (MPC) framework. Representing these…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-05-09 Haruki Kojima , Kohei Honda , Hiroyuki Okuda , Tatsuya Suzuki

Estimating collision probabilities between robots and environmental obstacles or other moving agents is crucial to ensure safety during path planning. This is an important building block of modern planning algorithms in many application…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-09-09 Felix Herrmann , Sebastian Zach , Jacopo Banfi , Jan Peters , Georgia Chalvatzaki , Davide Tateo

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a principled framework for quantifying uncertainty in blackbox learning models, by constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Traditional approaches rely on scalar nonconformity scores,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-07 Gauthier Thurin , Kimia Nadjahi , Claire Boyer