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Prediction via deterministic continuous-time models will always be subject to model error, for example due to unexplainable phenomena, uncertainties in any data driving the model, or discretisation/resolution issues. In this paper, we build…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-06-30 Liam Blake , John Maclean , Sanjeeva Balasuriya

We present here a PAC-Bayesian point of view on adaptive supervised classification. Using convex analysis, we show how to get local measures of the complexity of the classification model involving the relative entropy of posterior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Olivier Catoni

In controlling systems with large operating envelopes, it is often necessary to adjust the desired dynamics according to operating conditions. This paper presents a robust adaptive control architecture for linear parameter-varying (LPV)…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-31 Pan Zhao , Steven Snyder , Naira Hovakimyana , Chengyu Cao

The identification of a linear system model from data has wide applications in control theory. The existing work that provides finite sample guarantees for linear system identification typically uses data from a single long system…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-09 Lei Xin , Baike She , Qi Dou , George Chiu , Shreyas Sundaram

Time series forecasting has become a critical task due to its high practicality in real-world applications such as traffic, energy consumption, economics and finance, and disease analysis. Recent deep-learning-based approaches have shown…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-30 Youngin Cho , Daejin Kim , Dongmin Kim , Mohammad Azam Khan , Jaegul Choo

Both PAC-Bayesian and Sample Compress learning frameworks are instrumental for deriving tight (non-vacuous) generalization bounds for neural networks. We leverage these results in a meta-learning scheme, relying on a hypernetwork that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-06 Benjamin Leblanc , Mathieu Bazinet , Nathaniel D'Amours , Alexandre Drouin , Pascal Germain

In statistical learning theory, generalization error is used to quantify the degree to which a supervised machine learning algorithm may overfit to training data. Recent work [Xu and Raginsky (2017)] has established a bound on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-01-16 Ankit Pensia , Varun Jog , Po-Ling Loh

Uncertainty quantification is essential in safety-critical settings--from autonomous driving to aviation, finance, and health--where decisions must rely on conservative bounds rather than point estimates. Predictor-level intervals (e.g.,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Ruirui Liu , Xuejie Hou , Yiping Jiang , Hui Ren

We introduce a modified version of the excess risk, which can be used to obtain tighter, fast-rate PAC-Bayesian generalisation bounds. This modified excess risk leverages information about the relative hardness of data examples to reduce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-25 Felix Biggs , Benjamin Guedj

The goal of a learning algorithm is to receive a training data set as input and provide a hypothesis that can generalize to all possible data points from a domain set. The hypothesis is chosen from hypothesis classes with potentially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-29 Soosan Beheshti , Mahdi Shamsi

In this paper, we consider the problem of replicable realizable PAC learning. We construct a particularly hard learning problem and show a sample complexity lower bound with a close to $(\log|H|)^{3/2}$ dependence on the size of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Kasper Green Larsen , Markus Engelund Mathiasen , Chirag Pabbaraju , Clement Svendsen

This paper generalizes an important result from the PAC-Bayesian literature for binary classification to the case of ensemble methods for structured outputs. We prove a generic version of the \Cbound, an upper bound over the risk of models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-16 François Laviolette , Emilie Morvant , Liva Ralaivola , Jean-Francis Roy

Polarization-adjusted convolutional (PAC) codes were recently proposed and arouse the interest of the channel coding community because they were shown to approach theoretical bounds for the (128,64) code size. In this letter, we propose…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-11-09 Thibaud Tonnellier , Warren J. Gross

This paper studies the truncation method from Alquier [1] to derive high-probability PAC-Bayes bounds for unbounded losses with heavy tails. Assuming that the $p$-th moment is bounded, the resulting bounds interpolate between a slow rate $1…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-26 Borja Rodríguez-Gálvez , Omar Rivasplata , Ragnar Thobaben , Mikael Skoglund

Model predictive control is a control approach that minimizes a stage cost over a predicted system trajectory based on a model of the system and is capable of handling state and input constraints. For uncertain models, robust or adaptive…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-29 Francisco Moreno-Mora , Lukas Beckenbach , Stefan Streif

This paper provides a finite-time analysis of linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithms with fixed step size, a core method in statistics and machine learning. LSA is used to compute approximate solutions of a $d$-dimensional linear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-30 Alain Durmus , Eric Moulines , Alexey Naumov , Sergey Samsonov

Computing the conditional mode of a distribution, better known as the $\mathit{maximum\ a\ posteriori}$ (MAP) assignment, is a fundamental task in probabilistic inference. However, MAP estimation is generally intractable, and remains hard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Matthew Shorvon , Frederik Mallmann-Trenn , David S. Watson

One method for obtaining generalizable solutions to machine learning tasks when presented with diverse training environments is to find \textit{invariant representations} of the data. These are representations of the covariates such that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-16 Advait Parulekar , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Sanjay Shakkottai

In the PAC-Bayesian literature, the C-Bound refers to an insightful relation between the risk of a majority vote classifier (under the zero-one loss) and the first two moments of its margin (i.e., the expected margin and the voters'…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-01 Paul Viallard , Pascal Germain , Amaury Habrard , Emilie Morvant

We are motivated by the problem of learning policies for robotic systems with rich sensory inputs (e.g., vision) in a manner that allows us to guarantee generalization to environments unseen during training. We provide a framework for…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-07-25 Abhinav Agarwal , Sushant Veer , Allen Z. Ren , Anirudha Majumdar