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This paper introduces the Non-homogeneous Generalized Skellam process (NGSP) and its fractional version NGFSP by time changing it with an independent inverse stable subordinator. We study distributional properties for NGSP and NGFSP…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-23 Kartik Tathe , Sayan Ghosh

In this paper, we introduce a bivariate tempered space-fractional Poisson process (BTSFPP) by time-changing the bivariate Poisson process with an independent tempered $\alpha$-stable subordinator. We study its distributional properties and…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-20 Ritik Soni , Ashok Kumar Pathak , Antonio Di Crescenzo , Alessandra Meoli

We develop a Bayesian nonparametric framework for inference in spatio-temporal Hawkes processes, extending existing theoretical results beyond the purely temporal setting. Our framework encompasses modelling both the background and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-08 Xenia Miscouridou , Deborah Sulem

In this paper, we investigate the stochastic counterpart of the generalized Wright analysis introduced in Beghin et al.~ in Integral Equations and Operator Theory, {\bf 97}, 2025. We define a new class of non-Gaussian and non-Markovian…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-18 W. Bock , L. Cristofaro , J. L. da Silva

In this paper, we develop sample path large deviations for multivariate Hawkes processes with heavy-tailed mutual excitation rates. Our results address a broad class of rare events in Hawkes processes at the sample path level and, via the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-01 Jose Blanchet , Roger J. A. Laeven , Xingyu Wang , Bert Zwart

As a tool for capturing irregular temporal dependencies (rather than resorting to binning temporal observations to construct time series), Hawkes processes with exponential decay have seen widespread adoption across many application…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-05 Tiago Santos , Florian Lemmerich , Denis Helic

Univariate marked Hawkes processes are used to model a range of real-world phenomena including earthquake aftershock sequences, contagious disease spread, content diffusion on social media platforms, and order book dynamics. This paper…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 Louis Davis , Conor Kresin , Boris Baeumer , Ting Wang

This paper introduces a generalized fractional Halanay-type coupled inequality, which serves as a robust tool for characterizing the asymptotic stability of diverse time fractional functional differential equations, particularly those…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-01-30 La Van Thinh , Hoang The Tuan , Dongling Wang , Yin Yang

We consider a class of tempered subordinators, namely a class of subordinators with one-dimensional marginal tempered distributions which belong to a family studied in [3]. The main contribution in this paper is a non-central moderate…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-05 Nikolai Leonenko , Claudio Macci , Barbara Pacchiarotti

We provide probabilistic and computational results on Markovian multivariate Hawkes processes and induced population processes. By applying the Markov property, we characterize in closed form a joint transform, bijective to the probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-08 R. S. Karim , R. J. A. Laeven , M , M. Mandjes

Tempered fractional Brownian motion is revisited from the viewpoint of reduced fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Many of the basic properties of the tempered fractional Brownian motion can be shown to be direct consequences or…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-23 S. C. Lim , Chai Hok Eab

Both Hawkes processes and autoregressive processes rely on linear functionals of their past, while modeling different types of data. Since datasets arising from observations of the same phenomenon may be heterogeneous and sampled at…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Théo Leblanc

We survey the 'generalized fractional Poisson process' (GFPP). The GFPP is a renewal process generalizing Laskin's fractional Poisson counting process and was first introduced by Cahoy and Polito. The GFPP contains two index parameters with…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-07-02 Thomas M. Michelitsch , Alejandro P. Riascos

In this paper continuous time random walk models approximating fractional space-time diffusion processes are studied. Stochastic processes associated with the considered equations represent time-changed processes, where the time-change…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-09-16 Sabir Umarov

We study the average shape of fluctuations for subdiffusive processes, i.e., processes with uncorrelated increments but where the waiting time distribution has a broad power-law tail. This shape is obtained analytically by means of a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Santos B. Yuste , L. Acedo

In this paper we provide an expansion formula for Hawkes processes which involves the addition of jumps at deterministic times to the Hawkes process in the spirit of the well-known integration by parts formula (or more precisely the Mecke…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-06 Caroline Hillairet , Anthony Reveillac , Mathieu Rosenbaum

This paper presents a parametric estimation method for ill-observed linear stationary Hawkes processes. When the exact locations of points are not observed, but only counts over time intervals of fixed size, methods based on the likelihood…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-11 Felix Cheysson , Gabriel Lang

We prove a law of large numbers and a functional central limit theorem for multivariate Hawkes processes observed over a time interval $[0,T]$ in the limit $T \rightarrow \infty$. We further exhibit the asymptotic behaviour of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-07 Emmanuel Bacry , Sylvain Delattre , Marc Hoffmann , Jean François Muzy

In this paper, we introduce a generalized fractional negative binomial process (GFNBP) by time changing the fractional Poisson process with an independent Mittag-Leffler (ML) Levy subordinator. We study its distributional properties and its…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-21 Ritik Soni , Ashok Kumar Pathak

The space-time fractional Poisson process (STFPP), defined by Orsingher and Poilto in \cite{sfpp}, is a generalization of the time fractional Poisson process (TFPP) and the space fractional Poisson process (SFPP). We study the fractional…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-10 A. Maheshwari , P. Vellaisamy