Related papers: Data-driven measures of high-frequency trading
Statistical analysis of high-frequency stock market order transaction data is conducted to understand order transition dynamics. We employ a first-order time-homogeneous discrete-time Markov chain model to the sequence of orders of stocks…
A technique for on-line estimation of spot volatility for high-frequency data is developed. The algorithm works directly on the transaction data and updates the volatility estimate immediately after the occurrence of a new transaction.…
A new approach to obtaining market--directional information, based on a non-stationary solution to the dynamic equation "future price tends to the value that maximizes the number of shares traded per unit time" [1] is presented. In our…
We consider the viability of a modularised mechanistic online machine learning framework to learn signals in low-frequency financial time series data. The framework is proved on daily sampled closing time-series data from JSE equity…
Realization of uncertainty of prices is captured by volatility, that is the tendency of prices to vary along a period of time. This is generally measured as standard deviation of daily returns. In this paper we propose and investigate the…
We provide an alternative method for analysis of multifractal properties of time series. The new approach takes into account the behaviour of the whole multifractal profile of the generalized Hurst exponent $h(q)$ for all moment orders $q$,…
Advances in deep neural network (DNN) architectures have enabled new prediction techniques for stock market data. Unlike other multivariate time-series data, stock markets show two unique characteristics: (i) \emph{multi-order dynamics}, as…
Within the context of risk integration, we introduce in risk measurement stochastic holding period (SHP) models. This is done in order to obtain a `liquidity-adjusted risk measure' characterized by the absence of a fixed time horizon. The…
In the present work we investigate the multiscale nature of the correlations for high frequency data (1 minute) in different futures markets over a period of two years, starting on the 1st of January 2003 and ending on the 31st of December…
We process private equity transactions to predict public market behavior with a logit model. Specifically, we estimate our model to predict quarterly returns for both the broad market and for individual sectors. Our hypothesis is that…
This paper introduces novel volatility diffusion models to account for the stylized facts of high-frequency financial data such as volatility clustering, intra-day U-shape, and leverage effect. For example, the daily integrated volatility…
In this paper we propose a bivariate generalization of a weighted indexed semi-Markov chains to study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks. We assume that financial returns are described by a weighted indexed semi-Markov chain…
We propose MFT -- Multi-Flow dense Tracker -- a novel method for dense, pixel-level, long-term tracking. The approach exploits optical flows estimated not only between consecutive frames, but also for pairs of frames at logarithmically…
We study the intraday behaviour of the statistical moments of the trading volume of the blue chip equities that composed the Dow Jones Industrial Average index between 2003 and 2014. By splitting that time interval into semesters, we…
High-frequency trading (HFT) has transformed modern financial markets, making reliable short-term price forecasting models essential. In this study, we present a novel approach to mid-price forecasting using Level 1 limit order book (LOB)…
With the rise of Industry 4.0, huge amounts of data are now generated that are apt to be modelled as functional data. In this setting, standard profile monitoring methods aim to assess the stability over time of a completely observed…
We use the database leak of Mt. Gox exchange to analyze the dynamics of the price of bitcoin from June 2011 to November 2013. This gives us a rare opportunity to study an emerging retail-focused, highly speculative and unregulated market…
In an era where financial markets are heavily influenced by many static and dynamic factors, it has become increasingly critical to carefully integrate diverse data sources with machine learning for accurate stock price prediction. This…
Purpose: This study introduces a novel framework for identifying and exploiting predictive lead-lag relationships in financial markets. We propose an integrated approach that combines advanced statistical methodologies with machine learning…
Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is increasingly difficult in markets characterised by extreme volatility, frequent price spikes, and rapid structural shifts. Deep learning (DL) has been increasingly adopted in EPF due to its…