Related papers: On Joint Marginal Expected Shortfall and Associate…
An accurate assessment of the risk of extreme environmental events is of great importance for populations, authorities and the banking/insurance/reinsurance industry. Koch (2017) introduced a notion of spatial risk measure and a…
It is of growing concern to ensure resilience in power distribution systems to extreme weather events. However, there are no clear methodologies or metrics available for resilience assessment that allows system planners to assess the impact…
Identifying systemic risk patterns in geopolitical, economic, financial, environmental, transportation, epidemiological systems and their impacts is the key to risk management. This paper proposes a new nonlinear time series model:…
The issue of model risk in default modeling has been known since inception of the Academic literature in the field. However, a rigorous treatment requires a description of all the possible models, and a measure of the distance between a…
In this paper, we develop a novel unified methodology for performance and robustness analysis of linear dynamical networks. We introduce the notion of systemic measures for the class of first--order linear consensus networks. We classify…
This paper motivates the views that for complex systems, risk should be controlled by enforcing constraints in a modular way at different system levels, that the constraints can be expressed as assurance contracts and that acceptable risk…
Competing risks data are common in medical studies, and the sub-distribution hazard (SDH) ratio is considered an appropriate measure. However, because the limitations of hazard itself are not easy to interpret clinically and because the SDH…
We present simple general conditions on the acceptance sets under which their induced monetary risk and deviation measures are comonotonic additive. We show that acceptance sets induce comonotonic additive risk measures if and only if the…
We propose a model and an estimation technique to distinguish systemic risk and contagion in credit risk. The main idea is to assume, for a set of $d$ obligors, a set of $d$ idiosyncratic shocks and a shock that triggers the default of all…
The aim of this paper is to study a new methodological framework for systemic risk measures by applying deep learning method as a tool to compute the optimal strategy of capital allocations. Under this new framework, systemic risk measures…
As it is known in the finance risk and macroeconomics literature, risk-sharing in large portfolios may increase the probability of creation of default clusters and of systemic risk. We review recent developments on mathematical and…
Optimizing risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of a general loss distribution is usually difficult, because 1) the loss function might lack structural properties such as convexity or…
A collision hazard measure that has the essential characteristics to provide a measurement of safety that will be useful to AV developers, traffic infrastructure developers and managers, regulators and the public is introduced here. The…
Higher order risk measures are stochastic optimization problems by design, and for this reason they enjoy valuable properties in optimization under uncertainties. They nicely integrate with stochastic optimization problems, as has been…
Analytical, free of time consuming Monte Carlo simulations, framework for credit portfolio systematic risk metrics calculations is presented. Techniques are described that allow calculation of portfolio-level systematic risk measures…
Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the IMF as "the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions", is a key topic in macroprudential policy and financial stress analysis. Specialized models to simulate…
Monetary risk measures are usually interpreted as the smallest amount of external capital that must be added to a financial position to make it acceptable. We propose a new concept: intrinsic risk measures and argue that this approach…
We investigate to which extent the relevant features of (static) Systemic Risk Measures can be extended to a conditional setting. After providing a general dual representation result, we analyze in greater detail Conditional Shortfall…
Due to their heterogeneity, insurance risks can be properly described as a mixture of different fixed models, where the weights assigned to each model may be estimated empirically from a sample of available data. If a risk measure is…
In health cohort studies, repeated measures of markers are often used to describe the natural history of a disease. Joint models allow to study their evolution by taking into account the possible informative dropout usually due to clinical…