Related papers: On Joint Marginal Expected Shortfall and Associate…
We introduce set risk measures (SRMs), real-valued maps defined on the family of non-empty closed bounded sets of essentially bounded random variables. SRMs extend traditional scalar risk measures by assigning a single capital requirement…
Marginal expected shortfall is unquestionably one of the most popular systemic risk measures. Studying its extreme behaviour is particularly relevant for risk protection against severe global financial market downturns. In this context,…
Value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are common high quantile-based risk measures adopted in financial regulations and risk management. In this paper, we propose a tail risk measure based on the most probable maximum size of risk…
We introduce a novel regression framework which simultaneously models the quantile and the Expected Shortfall (ES) of a response variable given a set of covariates. This regression is based on a strictly consistent loss function for the…
Value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are two commonly utilized metrics for quantifying financial risk. In this study, we review the widely employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. These…
Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erd\H{o}s Renyi network models where each node, representing bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use…
Systemic risk measures are crucial for the stability of financial markets, yet classical formulations fail to capture the complexity of market volatility. We propose a new framework for systemic risk measurement on the variable-exponent…
Risk measures like Marginal Expected Shortfall and Marginal Mean Excess quantify conditional risk and in particular, aid in the understanding of systemic risk. In many such scenarios, models exhibiting heavy tails in the margins and…
Expected Shortfall (ES, also known as CVaR) is the most important coherent risk measure in finance, insurance, risk management, and engineering. Recently, Wang and Zitikis (2021) put forward four economic axioms for portfolio risk…
Crises like COVID-19 or the Japanese earthquake in 2011 exposed the fragility of corporate supply networks. The production of goods and services is a highly interdependent process and can be severely impacted by the default of critical…
A semi-parametric joint Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting framework employing multiple realized measures is developed. The proposed framework extends the realized exponential GARCH model to be semi-parametrically…
Supply chain disruptions constitute an often underestimated risk for financial stability. As in financial networks, systemic risks in production networks arises when the local failure of one firm impacts the production of others and might…
The debate of what quantitative risk measure to choose in practice has mainly focused on the dichotomy between Value at Risk (VaR) -- a quantile -- and Expected Shortfall (ES) -- a tail expectation. Range Value at Risk (RVaR) is a natural…
The intuition of risk is based on two main concepts: loss and variability. In this paper, we present a composition of risk and deviation measures, which contemplate these two concepts. Based on the proposed Limitedness axiom, we prove that…
We propose a risk measurement approach for a risk-averse stochastic problem. We provide results that guarantee that our problem has a solution. We characterize and explore the properties of the argmin as a risk measure and the minimum as a…
Cyber risks are the most common risks encountered by a modern network system. However, it is significantly difficult to assess the joint cyber risk owing to the network topology, risk propagation, and heterogeneities of components. In this…
In the present contribution we characterize law determined convex risk measures that have convex level sets at the level of distributions. By relaxing the assumptions in Weber (2006), we show that these risk measures can be identified with…
Research capacity is critical in understanding systemic risk and informing new regulation. Banking regulation has not kept pace with all the complexities of financial innovation. The academic literature on systemic risk is rapidly…
This paper introduces a novel framework to study default dependence and systemic risk in a financial network that evolves over time. We analyse several indicators of risk, and develop a new latent space model to assess the health of key…
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 highlighted the crucial role systemic risk plays in ensuring stability of financial markets. Accurate assessment of systemic risk would enable regulators to introduce suitable policies to mitigate…