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Constraint-based methods and noise-based methods are two distinct families of methods proposed for uncovering causal graphs from observational data. However, both operate under strong assumptions that may be challenging to validate or could…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-01 Daria Bystrova , Charles K. Assaad , Julyan Arbel , Emilie Devijver , Eric Gaussier , Wilfried Thuiller

This paper introduces a novel approach for modelling time-varying connectivity in neuroimaging data, focusing on the slow fluctuations in synaptic efficacy that mediate neuronal dynamics. Building on the framework of Dynamic Causal…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-12-05 Johan Medrano , Karl J. Friston , Peter Zeidman

Neurally-parameterized Structural Causal Models in the Pearlian notion to causality, referred to as NCM, were recently introduced as a step towards next-generation learning systems. However, said NCM are only concerned with the learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-27 Matej Zečević , Devendra Singh Dhami , Kristian Kersting

In multivariate time series analysis, understanding the underlying causal relationships among variables is often of interest for various applications. Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) provide a powerful framework for representing causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-30 Arkaprava Roy , Anindya Roy , Subhashis Ghosal

Establishing causal relations between random variables from observational data is perhaps the most important challenge in today's \blue{science}. In remote sensing and geosciences this is of special relevance to better understand the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-10 Adrián Pérez-Suay , Gustau Camps-Valls

Although nonstationary data are more common in the real world, most existing causal discovery methods do not take nonstationarity into consideration. In this letter, we propose a kernel embedding-based approach, ENCI, for nonstationary…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-25 Shoubo Hu , Zhitang Chen , Laiwan Chan

While feedback loops are known to play important roles in many complex systems, their existence is ignored in a large part of the causal discovery literature, as systems are typically assumed to be acyclic from the outset. When applying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-18 Joris M. Mooij , Tom Claassen

Causal inference for observational longitudinal studies often requires the accurate estimation of treatment effects on time-to-event outcomes in the presence of time-dependent patient history and time-dependent covariates. To tackle this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-17 Jie Zhu , Blanca Gallego

We consider continuous-time survival or more general event-history settings, where the aim is to infer the causal effect of a time-dependent treatment process. This is formalised as the effect on the outcome event of a (possibly…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Kjetil Røysland , Pål Ryalen , Mari Nygård , Vanessa Didelez

We propose a novel approach for change-point detection and parameter learning in multivariate non-stationary time series exhibiting oscillatory behaviour. We approximate the process through a piecewise function defined by a sum of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-02 Nicolas Bianco , Lorenzo Cappello

The broad abundance of time series data, which is in sharp contrast to limited knowledge of the underlying network dynamic processes that produce such observations, calls for a rigorous and efficient method of causal network inference. Here…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-05-19 Jie Sun , Dane Taylor , Erik M. Bollt

Marginal structural models are a popular method for estimating causal effects in the presence of time-varying exposures. In spite of their popularity, no scalable non-parametric estimator exist for marginal structural models with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-30 Axel Martin , Michele Santacatterina , Iván Díaz

A structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) process is a linear causal model for variables that evolve over a discrete set of time points and between which there may be lagged and instantaneous effects. The qualitative causal structure of an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-19 Nicolas-Domenic Reiter , Jonas Wahl , Andreas Gerhardus , Jakob Runge

In some causal inference scenarios, the treatment variable is measured inaccurately, for instance in epidemiology or econometrics. Failure to correct for the effect of this measurement error can lead to biased causal effect estimates.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-13 Antti Pöllänen , Pekka Marttinen

We propose a semiparametric framework for causal inference with right-censored survival outcomes and many weak invalid instruments, motivated by Mendelian randomization in biobank studies where classical methods may fail. We adopt an…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-06 Qiushi Bu , Wen Su , Xingqiu Zhao , Zhonghua Liu

This paper considers how to classify the effects of interventions in causal models for outcomes and exposures observed over time. First, we demonstrate the limitations of the most common uses of potential outcomes and causal directed…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Russell Steele , Naftali Weinberger , Tess Baker , Ian Shrier

We develop a novel approach towards causal inference. Rather than structural equations over a causal graph, we learn stochastic differential equations (SDEs) whose stationary densities model a system's behavior under interventions. These…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Lars Lorch , Andreas Krause , Bernhard Schölkopf

This paper focuses on drawing inference on the causal impact of an intervention at a specific time point, as manifested in an outcome variable over time. We operate on the interrupted time series framework and expand on approaches such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-07 Gianluca Giudice , Sara Geneletti , Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos

Behavioral science researchers have shown strong interest in disaggregating within-person relations from between-person differences (stable traits) using longitudinal data. In this paper, we propose a method of within-person variability…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-08 Satoshi Usami

The paper considers causal smoothing of the real sequences, i.e.,discrete time processes in a deterministic setting. A family of causal linear time-invariant filters is suggested. These filters approximate the gain decay for some non-causal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-07-07 Nikolai Dokuchaev