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Computing the marginal likelihood (also called the Bayesian model evidence) is an important task in Bayesian model selection, providing a principled quantitative way to compare models. The learned harmonic mean estimator solves the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-22 Alicja Polanska , Matthew A. Price , Alessio Spurio Mancini , Jason D. McEwen

The marginal likelihood, or Bayesian evidence, is a crucial quantity for Bayesian model comparison but its computation can be challenging for complex models, even in parameters space of moderate dimension. The learned harmonic mean…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Alicja Polanska , Jason D. McEwen

We resurrect the infamous harmonic mean estimator for computing the marginal likelihood (Bayesian evidence) and solve its problematic large variance. The marginal likelihood is a key component of Bayesian model selection to evaluate model…

The recent introduction of machine learning techniques, especially normalizing flows, for the sampling of lattice gauge theories has shed some hope on improving the sampling efficiency of the traditional HMC algorithm. Naive use of…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2022-12-06 David Albandea , Luigi Del Debbio , Pilar Hernández , Richard Kenway , Joe Marsh Rossney , Alberto Ramos

We present a computational framework for efficient learning, sampling, and distribution of general Bayesian posterior distributions. The framework leverages a machine learning approach for the construction of normalizing flows for the…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2023-10-10 Yukari Yamauchi , Landon Buskirk , Pablo Giuliani , Kyle Godbey

Numerically estimating the integral of functions in high dimensional spaces is a non-trivial task. A oft-encountered example is the calculation of the marginal likelihood in Bayesian inference, in a context where a sampling algorithm such…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-03-30 Allen Caldwell , Philipp Eller , Vasyl Hafych , Rafael C. Schick , Oliver Schulz , Marco Szalay

Posterior distributions often feature intractable normalizing constants, called marginal likelihoods or evidence, that are useful for model comparison via Bayes factors. This has motivated a number of methods for estimating ratios of…

Computation · Statistics 2018-10-03 Maxime Rischard , Pierre E. Jacob , Natesh Pillai

The recent introduction of Machine Learning techniques, especially Normalizing Flows, for the sampling of lattice gauge theories has shed some hope on improving the sampling efficiency of the traditional Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm.…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2023-09-21 David Albandea , Luigi Del Debbio , Pilar Hernández , Richard Kenway , Joe Marsh Rossney , Alberto Ramos

We investigate the use of normalizing flow (NF) models as flexible priors in Bayesian inference via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for iterative Bayesian calibration. Trained on posteriors from previous analyses, these models can…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2026-04-02 Hendrik Roch , Chun Shen

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

We present an accelerated pipeline, based on high-performance computing techniques and normalizing flows, for joint Bayesian parameter estimation and model selection and demonstrate its efficiency in gravitational wave astrophysics. We…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-11-01 Alicja Polanska , Thibeau Wouters , Peter T. H. Pang , Kaze K. W. Wong , Jason D. McEwen

Recent advances in machine learning have led to the development of new methods for enhancing Monte Carlo methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and importance sampling (IS). One such method is normalizing flows, which use a neural…

Computation · Statistics 2024-01-12 Charly Andral

Subject of this paper is the simplification of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling as used in Bayesian statistical inference by means of normalising flows, a machine learning method which is able to construct an invertible and differentiable…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-04-24 Tobias Röspel , Adrian Schlosser , Björn Malte Schäfer

We introduce a model of hadronization based on invertible neural networks that faithfully reproduces a simplified version of the Lund string model for meson hadronization. Additionally, we introduce a new training method for normalizing…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2024-08-14 Christian Bierlich , Phil Ilten , Tony Menzo , Stephen Mrenna , Manuel Szewc , Michael K. Wilkinson , Ahmed Youssef , Jure Zupan

We propose a novel approach to the problem of mutual information (MI) estimation via introducing a family of estimators based on normalizing flows. The estimator maps original data to the target distribution, for which MI is easier to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Ivan Butakov , Alexander Tolmachev , Sofia Malanchuk , Anna Neopryatnaya , Alexey Frolov

The Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method has been recognized as a powerful sampling tool in computational statistics. We show that performance of HMC can be significantly improved by incorporating importance sampling and an irreversible…

Computation · Statistics 2019-07-26 Tijana Radivojević , Elena Akhmatskaya

We study Bayesian inverse problems with mixed noise, modeled as a combination of additive and multiplicative Gaussian components. While traditional inference methods often assume fixed or known noise characteristics, real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Paul Hagemann , Robert Gruhlke , Bernhard Stankewitz , Claudia Schillings , Gabriele Steidl

The sampling of probability distributions specified up to a normalization constant is an important problem in both machine learning and statistical mechanics. While classical stochastic sampling methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-27 Hao Wu , Jonas Köhler , Frank Noé

This paper introduces equivariant hamiltonian flows, a method for learning expressive densities that are invariant with respect to a known Lie-algebra of local symmetry transformations while providing an equivariant representation of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-01 Danilo Jimenez Rezende , Sébastien Racanière , Irina Higgins , Peter Toth

Efficient Bayesian model selection relies on the model evidence or marginal likelihood, whose computation often requires evaluating an intractable integral. The harmonic mean estimator (HME) has long been a standard method of approximating…

Computation · Statistics 2025-12-23 Dana Naderi , Christian P Robert , Kaniav Kamary , Darren Wraith
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