Related papers: Credit, Land Speculation, and Long-Run Economic Gr…

The importance of adequately modeling credit risk has once again been highlighted in the recent financial crisis. Defaults tend to cluster around times of economic stress due to poor macro-economic conditions, {\em but also} by directly…

Growth rate of the world Growth Domestic Product (GDP) is analysed to determine possible pathways of the future economic growth. The analysis is based on using the latest data of the World Bank and it reveals that the growth rate between…

Markets have internal dynamics leading to excess volatility and other phenomena that are difficult to explain using rational expectations models. This paper studies these using a nonequilibrium price formation rule, developed in the context…

Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve in terms of real economic activity. In this paper we use data for a variety of E.U. countries: both EMU (Germany, France, Italy) and non-EMU members (Sweden and the…

Empirical business cycle studies using cross-country data usually cannot achieve causal relationships while within-country studies mostly focus on the bust period. We provide the first causal investigation into the boom period of the…

We model a network economy with three sectors: downstream firms, upstream firms, and banks. Agents are linked by productive and credit relationships so that the behavior of one agent influences the behavior of the others through network…

Are expansions and recessions more likely to end as their magnitude increases? In this paper we apply parametric hazard models to investigate this issue in a sample of 16 countries from 1881 to 2000. For the total sample we find evidence of…

Public debt is one of the important economic variables that quantitatively describes a nation's economy. Because bankruptcy is a risk faced even by institutions as large as governments (e.g. Iceland), national debt should be strictly…

Many socio-economic systems require positive economic growth rates to function properly. Given uncertainty about future growth rates and increasing evidence that economic growth is a driver of social and environmental crises, these growth…

Machine Learning (ML) increasingly informs the allocation of opportunities to individuals and communities in areas such as lending, education, employment, and beyond. Such decisions often impact their subjects' future characteristics and…

International trade has been in the forefront of economic development and growth debates. Trade openness, its definition, scope, and impacts have also been studied numerously. Tariff has been dubbed as negative influencer of economic growth…

During the last decades two important contributions have reshaped our understanding of international trade. First, countries trade more with those with whom they share history, language, and culture, suggesting that trade is limited by…

Macroeconomic theories of growth and wealth distribution have an outsized influence on national and international social and economic policies. Yet, due to a relative lack of reliable, system wide data, many such theories remain, at best,…

The Fourth Industrial Revolution commonly refers to the accelerating technological transformation that has been taking place in the 21st century. Economic growth theories which treat the accumulation of knowledge and its effect on…

We investigate the relation between economic growth and equality in a modified version of the agent-based asset exchange model (AEM). The modified model is a driven system that for a range of parameter space is effectively ergodic in the…

We find that factors explaining bank loan recovery rates vary depending on the state of the economic cycle. Our modeling approach incorporates a two-state Markov switching mechanism as a proxy for the latent credit cycle, helping to explain…

Economies grow by upgrading the type of products they produce and export. The technology, capital, institutions and skills needed to make such new products are more easily adapted from some products than others. We study the network of…

This paper studies the dynamics of Brazilian interest rates for short-term maturities. The paper employs developed techniques in the econophysics literature and tests for long-range dependence in the term structure of these interest rates…

Unemployment insurance provides temporary cash benefits to eligible unemployed workers. Benefits are sometimes extended by discretion during economic slumps. In a model that features temporary benefits and sequential job opportunities, a…

Nowadays consumer loan plays an important role in promoting the economic growth, and credit cards are the most popular consumer loan. One of the most essential parts in credit cards is the credit limit management. Traditionally, credit…