Related papers: Credit, Land Speculation, and Long-Run Economic Gr…
It is commonly believed that financial crises "lead to" lower growth of a country during the two-year recession period, which can be reflected by their post-crisis GDP growth. However, by contrasting a causal model with a standard…
The existing theorization of development economics and transition economics is probably inadequate and perhaps even flawed to accurately explain and analyze a dual economic system such as that in China. China is a country in the transition…
A significant number of the non-financial firms listed at Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) have been experiencing declining financial performance which deter investors from investing in such firms. The lenders are also not willing to lend…
All economies require physical resource consumption to grow and maintain their structure. The modern economy is additionally characterized by private debt. The Human and Resources with MONEY (HARMONEY) economic growth model links these…
In economic modeling, there has been an increasing investigation into multi-agent simulators. Nevertheless, state-of-the-art studies establish the model based on reinforcement learning (RL) exclusively for specific agent categories, e.g.,…
We present a limits-to-arbitrage model to study the impact of securitization, leverage and credit risk protection on the cyclicity of bank credit. In a stable bank credit situation, no cycles of credit expansion or contraction appear.…
Any firm whose business strategy has an exposure constraint that limits its potential gain naturally considers expansion, as this can increase its exposure. We model business expansion as an enlargement of the opportunity set for business…
Private credit assets under management grew from \$158 billion in 2010 to nearly \$2 trillion globally by mid-2024, fundamentally reshaping corporate credit markets. This paper provides a systematic survey of the academic literature on…
As countries develop, the relative importance of agriculture declines and economic activity becomes spatially concentrated. We develop a model integrating structural change and regional disparities to jointly capture these phenomena. A key…
This study investigates the long-term effects of temperature variations on economic growth using a data-driven approach. Leveraging machine learning techniques, we analyze global land surface temperature data from Berkeley Earth and…
Most explanations of economic growth are based on knowledge spillovers, where the development of some technologies facilitates the enhancement of others. Empirical studies show that these spillovers can have a heterogeneous and rather…
The agricultural sector is particularly susceptible to the impact of climate change. In this paper, I investigate how vulnerability to climate change affects U.S. farms' credit access, and demonstrates that such impact is unequally…
Urban land growth presents a major sustainability challenge, yet its growth patterns and dynamics remain unclear. We quantified urban land evolution by analyzing its statistical distribution in 14 regions and countries over 29 years. The…
Borrowing constraints are a key component of modern international macroeconomic models. The analysis of Emerging Markets (EM) economies generally assumes collateral borrowing constraints, i.e., firms access to debt is constrained by the…
Macroeconomic factors have a critical impact on banking credit risk, which cannot be directly controlled by banks, and therefore, there is a need for an early credit risk warning system based on the macroeconomy. By comparing different…
Analysis of the 2007-8 credit crisis has concentrated on issues of relaxed lending standards, and the perception of irrational behaviour by speculative investors in real estate and other assets. Asset backed securities have been extensively…
The article presents calculations that prove practical importance of the earlier derived theoretical relationship between the interest rate on the interbank credit market, volume of investment and the quantity of securities tradable on the…
This paper aims to analyze the relationship between yield curve -being a line of the interests in various maturities at a given time- and GDP growth in Turkey. The paper focuses on analyzing the yield curve in relation to its predictive…
Vector autoregression is an essential tool in empirical macroeconomics and finance for understanding the dynamic interdependencies among multivariate time series. In this study, we expand the scope of vector autoregression by incorporating…
Recurrent boom-and-bust cycles are a salient feature of economic and financial history. Cycles found in the data are stochastic, often highly persistent, and span substantial fractions of the sample size. We refer to such cycles as "long".…