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In statistics and machine learning, approximation of an intractable integration is often achieved by using the unbiased Monte Carlo estimator, but the variances of the estimation are generally high in many applications. Control variates…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-16 Ruosi Wan , Mingjun Zhong , Haoyi Xiong , Zhanxing Zhu

In contemporary problems involving genetic or neuroimaging data, thousands of hypotheses need to be tested. Due to their high power, and finite sample guarantees on type-I error under weak assumptions, Monte Carlo permutation tests are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-01 Lasse Fischer , Timothy Barry , Aaditya Ramdas

Statisticians often use Monte Carlo methods to approximate probability distributions, primarily with Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. Sequential Monte Carlo samplers are a class of algorithms that combine both techniques to…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-20 Chenguang Dai , Jeremy Heng , Pierre E. Jacob , Nick Whiteley

This paper presents an improved result on the negative-binomial Monte Carlo technique analyzed in a previous paper for the estimation of an unknown probability p. Specifically, the confidence level associated to a relative interval…

Computation · Statistics 2008-09-25 Luis Mendo , Jose M. Hernando

In many real-world engineering systems, the performance or reliability of the system is characterised by a scalar parameter. The distribution of this performance parameter is important in many uncertainty quantification problems, ranging…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-03 Robert Millar , Jinglai Li , Hui Li

Many problems in machine learning and statistics involve nested expectations and thus do not permit conventional Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. For such problems, one must nest estimators, such that terms in an outer estimator themselves…

Computation · Statistics 2018-05-24 Tom Rainforth , Robert Cornish , Hongseok Yang , Andrew Warrington , Frank Wood

Zero- and two-dimensional crystal defects form in open statistical ensembles, such as the grand canonical, that are usually inaccessible with conventional simulation techniques. This longstanding challenge is overcome with a new Hamiltonian…

Materials Science · Physics 2026-01-16 Flynn Walsh , Babak Sadigh , Joseph T. McKeown , Timofey Frolov

Algorithms which sort lists of real numbers into ascending order have been studied for decades. They are typically based on a series of pairwise comparisons and run entirely on chip. However people routinely sort lists which depend on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-12-28 Samuel L Smith

Expectation values of physical quantities may accurately be obtained by the evaluation of integrals within Many-Body Quantum mechanics, and these multi-dimensional integrals may be estimated using Monte Carlo methods. In a previous…

Computational Physics · Physics 2009-10-01 J. R. Trail

We propose a novel stochastic algorithm that randomly samples entire rows and columns of the matrix as a way to approximate an arbitrary matrix function using the power series expansion. This contrasts with existing Monte Carlo methods,…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-09-23 Nicolas L. Guidotti , Juan A. Acebrón , José Monteiro

Consider testing multiple hypotheses in the setting where the p-values of all hypotheses are unknown and thus have to be approximated using Monte Carlo simulations. One class of algorithms published in the literature for this scenario…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-16 Georg Hahn

Robust estimation is much more challenging in high dimensions than it is in one dimension: Most techniques either lead to intractable optimization problems or estimators that can tolerate only a tiny fraction of errors. Recent work in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-14 Ilias Diakonikolas , Gautam Kamath , Daniel M. Kane , Jerry Li , Ankur Moitra , Alistair Stewart

With the goal to provide absolute lower bounds for the best possible running times that can be achieved by $(1+\lambda)$-type search heuristics on common benchmark problems, we recently suggested a dynamic programming approach that computes…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2021-02-24 Kirill Antonov , Maxim Buzdalov , Arina Buzdalova , Carola Doerr

Engineering risk is concerned with the likelihood of failure and the scenarios when it occurs. The sensitivity of failure probability to change in system parameters is relevant to risk-informed decision making. Computing sensitivity is at…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-19 Siu-Kui Au , Zi-Jun Cao

The purpose of this paper is to propose methodologies for statistical inference of low-dimensional parameters with high-dimensional data. We focus on constructing confidence intervals for individual coefficients and linear combinations of…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-11-05 Cun-Hui Zhang , Stephanie S. Zhang

Closed-form stochastic filtering equations can be derived in a general setting where probability distributions are replaced by some specific outer measures. In this article, we study how the principles of the sequential Monte Carlo method…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-07 Jeremie Houssineau , Branko Ristic

We propose a general scheme to create time sequences that fulfill given constraints but are random otherwise. Significance levels for nonlinearity tests are as usually obtained by Monte Carlo resampling. In a new scheme, constraints…

chao-dyn · Physics 2007-05-23 Thomas Schreiber , Andreas Schmitz

Renewal models are widely used in statistical epidemiology as semi-mechanistic models of disease transmission. While primarily used for estimating the instantaneous reproduction number, they can also be used for generating projections,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-25 Nicholas Steyn , Kris V. Parag , Robin N. Thompson , Christl A. Donnelly

As the size of engineered systems grows, problems in reliability theory can become computationally challenging, often due to the combinatorial growth in the cut sets. In this paper we demonstrate how Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) - a…

Computation · Statistics 2017-03-14 Louis J. M. Aslett , Tigran Nagapetyan , Sebastian J. Vollmer

Modern training and inference pipelines in statistical learning and deep learning repeatedly invoke linear-system solves as inner loops, yet high-accuracy deterministic solvers can be prohibitively expensive when solves must be repeated…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-06 Sarah Polson , Vadim Sokolov