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A continuous-time Markov chain rate change formula for simulation, model selection, filtering and theory is proven. It is used to develop Markov chain importance sampling, rejection sampling, branching particle filtering algorithms and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-14 Michael A. Kouritzin

Specialized classifiers, namely those dedicated to a subset of classes, are often adopted in real-world recognition systems. However, integrating such classifiers is nontrivial. Existing methods, e.g. weighted average, usually implicitly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-08 Zhizhong Li , Dahua Lin

We prove that, in the coupon collector's problem, the point processes given by the times of $r$-th arrivals for coupons of each type, centered and normalized in a proper way, converge toward a non-homogeneous Poisson point process. This…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-09-16 Andrii Ilienko

We study the problem of learning the transition matrices of a set of Markov chains from a single stream of observations on each chain. We assume that the Markov chains are ergodic but otherwise unknown. The learner can sample Markov chains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-14 Mohammad Sadegh Talebi , Odalric-Ambrym Maillard

In many dynamical systems in nature, the law of the dynamics changes along with the temporal evolution of the system. These changes are often associated with the occurrence of certain events. The timing of occurrence of these events…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-12 S. Gallo , G. Iacobelli , G. Ost , D. Y. Takahashi

We consider the following variant of the classic collector's problem: The family of coupon probabilities is the mixing of two subfamilies one of which is the \textit{uniform} family, while the other belongs to the well known \textit{Zipf…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-23 Aristides V. Doumas , Vassilis G. Papanicolaou

Motivated by queueing systems with heterogeneous parallel servers, we consider a class of structured multi-dimensional Markov processes whose state space can be partitioned into two parts: a finite set of boundary states and a structured…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-10-02 Jori Selen , Ivo J. B. F. Adan , Johan S. H. van Leeuwaarden

For a given absorbing Markov chain $X^*$ on a finite state space, a chain $X$ is a sharp antidual of $X^*$ if the fastest strong stationary time of $X$ is equal, in distribution, to the absorption time of $X^*$. In this paper we show a…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-04 Paweł Lorek

For Markov processes with absorption, we provide general criteria ensuring the existence and the exponential non-uniform convergence in total variation norm to a quasi-stationary distribution. We also characterize a subset of its domain of…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-24 Nicolas Champagnat , Denis Villemonais

We consider the task of generating draws from a Markov jump process (MJP) between two time-points at which the process is known. Resulting draws are typically termed bridges and the generation of such bridges plays a key role in…

Computation · Statistics 2019-01-31 Andrew Golightly , Chris Sherlock

We propose a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method in which trial configurations are generated by evolving a state, sampled from a prior distribution, using a Markov transition matrix. We present two prototypical algorithms and derive their…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-01-09 Joel Mabillard , Isha Malhotra , Bortolo Matteo Mognetti

Matryoshka dolls, the traditional Russian nesting figurines, are known world-wide for each doll's encapsulation of a sequence of smaller dolls. In this paper, we identify a large class of Markov process whose moments are easy to compute by…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-26 Andrew Daw , Jamol Pender

In this paper the coupon collector's problem with group drawings is studied. Assume there are $ n $ different coupons. At each time precisely $ s $ of the $ n $ coupons are drawn, where all choices are supposed to have equal probability.…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-16 Carina Betken , Christoph Thäle

We propose an exact technique to calculate lower bounds of spectral gaps of discrete time reversible Markov chains on finite state sets. Spectral gaps are a common tool for evaluating convergence rates of Markov chains. As an illustration,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-08-31 N. Destainville

This work focuses on time-inhomogeneous Markov chains with two time scales. Our motivations stem from applications in reliability and dependability, queueing networks, financial engineering and manufacturing systems, where two-time-scale…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 George Yin , Hanqin Zhang

This paper introduces a new approach of treating platoon systems using mean-variance control formulation. The underlying system is a controlled switching diffusion in which the random switching process is a continuous-time Markov chain.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-01-22 Zhixin Yang , G. Yin , Le Yi Wang , Hongwei Zhang

The focus of this article is on entropy and Markov processes. We study the properties of functionals which are invariant with respect to monotonic transformations and analyze two invariant "additivity" properties: (i) existence of a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-11-12 A. N. Gorban , P. A. Gorban , G. Judge

Markov combination is an operation that takes two statistical models and produces a third whose marginal distributions include those of the original models. Building upon and extending existing work in the Gaussian case, we develop Markov…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-24 Orlando Marigliano , Eva Riccomagno

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are algorithms for sampling probability distributions, commonly applied to the Boltzmann distribution in physical and chemical models such as protein folding and the Ising model. These methods enable…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-12-04 Aingeru Ramos , Jose A. Pascual , Javier Navaridas , Ivan Coluzza

The method of 'coupling from the past' permits exact sampling from the invariant distribution of a Markov chain on a finite state space. The coupling is successful whenever the stochastic dynamics are such that there is coalescence of all…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-17 Geoffrey R. Grimmett , Mark Holmes