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In statistics, forecast uncertainty is often quantified using a specified statistical model, though such approaches may be vulnerable to model misspecification, selection bias, and limited finite-sample validity. While bootstrapping can…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-12 Han Lin Shang

Quantifying uncertainty in automatically generated text is important for letting humans check potential hallucinations and making systems more reliable. Conformal prediction is an attractive framework to provide predictions imbued with…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-02 Dennis Ulmer , Chrysoula Zerva , André F. T. Martins

We propose a computationally efficient method to construct nonparametric, heteroscedastic prediction bands for uncertainty quantification, with or without any user-specified predictive model. Our approach provides an alternative to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-18 Tengyuan Liang

Many segmentation tasks, such as medical image segmentation or future state prediction, are inherently ambiguous, meaning that multiple predictions are equally correct. Current methods typically rely on generative models to capture this…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-23 Sebastian Gerard , Josephine Sullivan

In previous deep-learning-based methods, semantic segmentation has been regarded as a static or dynamic per-pixel classification task, \textit{i.e.,} classify each pixel representation to a specific category. However, these methods only…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-04-03 Fangjian Lin , Zhanhao Liang , Sitong Wu , Junjun He , Kai Chen , Shengwei Tian

Image-based simulation, the use of 3D images to calculate physical quantities, fundamentally relies on image segmentation to create the computational geometry. However, this process introduces image segmentation uncertainty because there is…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-09-20 Michael C. Krygier , Tyler LaBonte , Carianne Martinez , Chance Norris , Krish Sharma , Lincoln N. Collins , Partha P. Mukherjee , Scott A. Roberts

The crux of semi-supervised semantic segmentation is to assign adequate pseudo-labels to the pixels of unlabeled images. A common practice is to select the highly confident predictions as the pseudo ground-truth, but it leads to a problem…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-03-15 Yuchao Wang , Haochen Wang , Yujun Shen , Jingjing Fei , Wei Li , Guoqiang Jin , Liwei Wu , Rui Zhao , Xinyi Le

Segmentation of anatomical structures and pathologies is inherently ambiguous. For instance, structure borders may not be clearly visible or different experts may have different styles of annotating. The majority of current state-of-the-art…

Important high-level vision tasks such as human-object interaction, image captioning and robotic manipulation require rich semantic descriptions of objects at part level. Based upon previous work on part localization, in this paper, we…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2016-12-22 Cewu Lu , Hao Su , Yongyi Lu , Li Yi , Chikeung Tang , Leonidas Guibas

Instance segmentation with neural networks is an essential task in environment perception. In many works, it has been observed that neural networks can predict false positive instances with high confidence values and true positives with low…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Kira Maag , Matthias Rottmann , Serin Varghese , Fabian Hueger , Peter Schlicht , Hanno Gottschalk

Topological correctness plays a critical role in many image segmentation tasks, yet most networks are trained using pixel-wise loss functions, such as Dice, neglecting topological accuracy. Existing topology-aware methods often lack robust…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-21 Laurin Lux , Alexander H. Berger , Alexander Weers , Nico Stucki , Daniel Rueckert , Ulrich Bauer , Johannes C. Paetzold

The robustness of image segmentation has been an important research topic in the past few years as segmentation models have reached production-level accuracy. However, like classification models, segmentation models can be vulnerable to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-06-19 Othmane Laousy , Alexandre Araujo , Guillaume Chassagnon , Marie-Pierre Revel , Siddharth Garg , Farshad Khorrami , Maria Vakalopoulou

Uncertainty estimation has been widely studied in medical image segmentation as a tool to provide reliability, particularly in deep learning approaches. However, previous methods generally lack effective supervision in uncertainty…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Yuzhu Li , An Sui , Fuping Wu , Xiahai Zhuang

Conformal Prediction offers a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models, enabling the construction of prediction sets with finite-sample validity guarantees. While easily adaptable to non-probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-27 Eshant English , Christoph Lippert

State-of-the-art deep neural networks demonstrate outstanding performance in semantic segmentation. However, their performance is tied to the domain represented by the training data. Open world scenarios cause inaccurate predictions which…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Kira Maag , Matthias Rottmann

Uncertainty quantification is an important prerequisite for the deployment of deep learning models in safety-critical areas. Yet, this hinges on the uncertainty estimates being useful to the extent the prediction intervals are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Dharmesh Tailor , Alvaro H. C. Correia , Eric Nalisnick , Christos Louizos

We introduce the notion of heterogeneous calibration that applies a post-hoc model-agnostic transformation to model outputs for improving AUC performance on binary classification tasks. We consider overconfident models, whose performance is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-11 David Durfee , Aman Gupta , Kinjal Basu

We introduce Observation-aware Conformal Uncertainty Local-Calibration (OCULAR), a conformal prediction-based algorithm that uses perception information to provide uncertainty quantification guarantees for unseen test-time environments.…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Luís Marques , Dmitry Berenson

Uncertainty representation and quantification are paramount in machine learning and constitute an important prerequisite for safety-critical applications. In this paper, we propose novel measures for the quantification of aleatoric and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-22 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

Uncertainty quantification for neural operators remains an open problem in the infinite-dimensional setting due to the lack of finite-sample coverage guarantees over functional outputs. While conformal prediction offers finite-sample…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-08 David Millard , Lars Lindemann , Ali Baheri
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