Related papers: Inflation Models with Correlation and Skew
We introduce a multi-factor stochastic volatility model based on the CIR/Heston stochastic volatility process. In order to capture the Samuelson effect displayed by commodity futures contracts, we add expiry-dependent exponential damping…
This article is an extension of the work of one of us (Coopersmith, 2011) in deriving the relationship between certain interest rates and the inflation rate of a two component economic system. We use the well-known Fisher relation between…
We propose a model for the joint evolution of European inflation, the European Central Bank official interest rate and the short-term interest rate, in a stochastic, continuous time setting. We derive the valuation equation for a contingent…
This paper introduces a new approach for estimating core inflation indicators based on common factors across a broad range of price indices. Specifically, by utilizing procedures for detecting multiple regimes in high-dimensional factor…
We present a multivariate stochastic volatility model with leverage, which is flexible enough to recapture the individual dynamics as well as the interdependencies between several assets while still being highly analytically tractable.…
We derive exact and closed-form expressions for a large class of two-point and three-point inflation correlators with the tree-level exchange of a single massive particle. The intermediate massive particle is allowed to have arbitrary mass,…
Timely monetary policy decision-making requires timely core inflation measures. We create a new core inflation series that is explicitly designed to succeed at that goal. Precisely, we introduce the Assemblage Regression, a generalized…
In this article, we consider a Markov-modulated model with jumps for short rate dynamics. We obtain closed formulas for the term structure and forward rates using the properties of the jump-telegraph process and the expectation hypothesis.…
We construct a no-arbitrage model of bond prices where the long bond is used as a numeraire. We develop bond prices and their dynamics without developing any model for the spot rate or forward rates. The model is arbitrage free and all…
In order to overcome the drawbacks of assuming deterministic volatility coefficients in the standard LIBOR market models to capture volatility smiles and skews in real markets, several extensions of LIBOR models to incorporate stochastic…
It has become standard practice to take the logarithmic growth of the scale factor as a measure of the amount of inflation, despite the well-known fact that this is only an approximation for the true amount of inflation required to solve…
This study presents contemporaneous modeling of asset return and price range within the framework of stochastic volatility with leverage. A new representation of the probability density function for the price range is provided, and its…
In this paper we provide evidence that financial option markets for equity indices give rise to non-trivial dependency structures between its constituents. Thus, if the individual constituent distributions of an equity index are inferred…
We develop a multi-factor stochastic volatility Libor model with displacement, where each individual forward Libor is driven by its own square-root stochastic volatility process. The main advantage of this approach is that, maturity-wise,…
We develop a medium-size semi-structural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view - often expressed by central banks - that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a…
We calibrate and test various variants of field theory models of the interest rate with data from eurodollars futures. A model based on a simple psychological factor are seen to provide the best fit to the market. We make a model…
We introduce a multi-factor stochastic volatility model based on the CIR/Heston volatility process that incorporates seasonality and the Samuelson effect. First, we give conditions on the seasonal term under which the corresponding…
We propose a fast and accurate numerical method for pricing European swaptions in multi-factor Gaussian term structure models. Our method can be used to accelerate the calibration of such models to the volatility surface. The pricing of an…
Seemingly unrelated models of inflation that originate from different physical setups yield, in some cases, identical predictions for the currently constrained inflationary observables. In order to classify the available models, we propose…
Forward-looking correlations are of interest in different financial applications, including factor-based asset pricing, forecasting stock-price movements or pricing index options. With a focus on non-FX markets, this paper defines necessary…