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Time series forecasting is often fundamental to scientific and engineering problems and enables decision making. With ever increasing data set sizes, a trivial solution to scale up predictions is to assume independence between interacting…
Conditional density estimation is complicated by multimodality, heteroscedasticity, and strong non-Gaussianity. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a principled nonparametric framework with calibrated uncertainty, but standard GP regression is…
Understanding how well a deep generative model captures a distribution of high-dimensional data remains an important open challenge. It is especially difficult for certain model classes, such as Generative Adversarial Networks and Diffusion…
Large sample statistical analysis of threshold autoregressive (TAR) models is usually based on the assumption that the underlying driving noise is uncorrelated. In this paper, we consider a model, driven by Gaussian noise with geometric…
Regression is typically treated as a curve-fitting process where the goal is to fit a prediction function to data. With the help of conditional generative adversarial networks, we propose to solve this age-old problem in a different way; we…
Autoregressive (AR) time series models are widely used in parametric spectral estimation (SE), where the power spectral density (PSD) of the time series is approximated by that of the \emph{best-fit} AR model, which is available in closed…
The multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) approach of Friedman (1991) and its Bayesian counterpart (Francom et al. 2018) are effective approaches for the emulation of computer models. The traditional assumption of Gaussian errors…
The matrixdist R package provides a comprehensive suite of tools for the statistical analysis of matrix distributions, including phase-type, inhomogeneous phase-type, discrete phase-type, and related multivariate distributions. This paper…
We propose a parsimonious spatiotemporal model for time series data on a spatial grid. Our model is capable of dealing with high-dimensional time series data that may be collected at hundreds of locations and capturing the spatial…
Nonstationarity in spatial and spatio-temporal processes is ubiquitous in environmental datasets, but is not often addressed in practice, due to a scarcity of statistical software packages that implement nonstationary models. In this…
The conditional autoregressive model is a routinely used statistical model for areal data that arise from, for instances, epidemiological, socio-economic or ecological studies. Various multivariate conditional autoregressive models have…
In Generalized Linear Estimation (GLE) problems, we seek to estimate a signal that is observed through a linear transform followed by a component-wise, possibly nonlinear and noisy, channel. In the Bayesian optimal setting, Generalized…
We introduce GAMSEL (Generalized Additive Model Selection), a penalized likelihood approach for fitting sparse generalized additive models in high dimension. Our method interpolates between null, linear and additive models by allowing the…
Gaussian process (GP) models have received increasing attention in recent years due to their superb prediction accuracy and modeling flexibility. To address the computational burdens of GP models for large-scale datasets, distributed…
Motivated by the modeling of liquidity risk in fund management in a dynamic setting, we propose and investigate a class of time series models with generalized Pareto marginals: the autoregressive generalized Pareto process (ARGP), a…
Under stringent model type and variable distribution assumptions, differentiable score-based causal discovery methods learn a directed acyclic graph (DAG) from observational data by evaluating candidate graphs over an average score…
We propose automated augmented conjugate inference, a new inference method for non-conjugate Gaussian processes (GP) models. Our method automatically constructs an auxiliary variable augmentation that renders the GP model conditionally…
In this article there is no intention to repeat basic concepts about risk management, but we will try to define why often is usefull the time series analysis during the assessment of risks, and how is possible to compute a significative…
Time series of matrix-valued data are increasingly available in various areas including economics, finance, social science, among others. These data may shed light on the inter-dynamical relationships between two sets of attributes, for…
We define Recurrent Gaussian Processes (RGP) models, a general family of Bayesian nonparametric models with recurrent GP priors which are able to learn dynamical patterns from sequential data. Similar to Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs),…