Related papers: Quantifying indirect and direct vaccination effect…
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmingly demonstrated the need to accurately evaluate the effects of implementing new or altering existing nonpharmaceutical interventions. Since these interventions applied at the societal level…
Non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs) play an important role in the early stage control of COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination is considered to be the inevitable course to stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Based on the mechanism, a SVEIR COVID-19…
During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to curb viral spreading. Such actions can reduce the number of simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is relevant to the risk of a…
In a metapopulation network, infectious diseases spread widely because of the travel of individuals. In the present study, we consider a modified metapopulation Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model with a latent period, which we call…
We consider the SEIRS epidemiology model with such features of the COVID-19 outbreak as: abundance of unidentified infected individuals, limited time of immunity and a possibility of vaccination. The control of the pandemic dynamics is…
We measure the effect of different public health regulations to the spread of COVID-19, based on a SEIRA model -- a SEIR model including asymptomatic transmissions. The cumulative confirmed cases and death show nonlinear positive…
In this paper, we conduct mathematical and numerical analyses to address the following crucial questions for COVID-19: (Q1) Is it possible to contain COVID-19? (Q2) When will be the peak and the end of the epidemic? (Q3) How do the…
Since early 2020, the world has been dealing with a raging pandemic outbreak: COVID-19. A year later, vaccines have become accessible, but in limited quantities, so that governments needed to devise a strategy to decide which part of the…
We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two…
Vaccination is widely recognized as the most effective way of immunization against many infectious diseases. However, unfounded claims about supposed side effects of some vaccines have contributed to spread concern and fear among people,…
Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been critical in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these sanitary measures have been partially lifted due to socioeconomic factors causing a worrisome rebound of the epidemic in several…
In many real-world complex systems, individuals have many kind of interactions among them, suggesting that it is necessary to consider a layered structure framework to model systems such as social interactions. This structure can be…
The crisis caused by the COVID-19 outbreak around the globe raised an increasing concern about the ongoing emergence of variants of SARS-CoV-2 that may evade the immune response provided by vaccines. New variants appear due to mutation, and…
Epidemics have shaped human history, often with devastating consequences, motivating the development of mathematical models to understand and control their dynamics. Among the many aspects of epidemic behavior, the conditions that lead to…
In this work, to support decision making of immunisation strategies, we propose the inclusion of two vaccination doses in the SEIR model considering a stochastic cellular automaton. We analyse three different scenarios of vaccination: $i)…
The non-population conserving SIR (SIR-NC) model to describe the spread of infections in a community is proposed and studied. Unlike the standard SIR model, SIR-NC does not assume population conservation. Although similar in form to the…
We study the changes of opinions about vaccination together with the evolution of a disease. In our model we consider a multiplex network consisting of two layers. One of the layers corresponds to a social network where people share their…
The response of the immune system to different vaccination patterns is studied with a simple model. It is argued that the history and characteristics of the pattern defines very different secondary immune responses in the case of infection.…
In order to meet regulatory approval, pharmaceutical companies often must demonstrate that new vaccines reduce the total risk of a post-infection outcome like transmission, symptomatic disease, severe illness, or death in randomized,…
We propose semi- and non-parametric methods to estimate conditional interventional effects in the setting of two discrete mediators whose causal ordering is unknown. Average interventional indirect effects have been shown to decompose an…