Related papers: Quantifying indirect and direct vaccination effect…
Susceptibility governs the dynamics of contagion. The classical SIR model is one of the simplest compartmental models of contagion spread, assuming a single shared susceptibility level. However, variation in susceptibility over a population…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…
In this research, we develop a framework to analyze the interaction between the economy and the Covid-19 pandemic using an extension of SIR epidemic model. At the outset, we assume there are two health related investments including general…
We use a simple SIR-like epidemic model which integrates known age-contact patterns for the United States to model the effect of age-targeted mitigation strategies for a COVID-19-like epidemic. We find that, among strategies which end with…
We study the interaction between epidemic spreading and a vaccination process. We assume that, similar to the disease spreading, also the vaccination process occurs through direct contact, i.e., it follows the standard…
Consider the causal effect that one individual's treatment may have on another individual's outcome when the outcome is contagious, with specific application to the effect of vaccination on an infectious disease outcome. The effect of one…
The effectiveness of the first and second dose vaccinations are different for COVID-19; therefore, a susceptible-infected-recovered-vaccination1-vaccination2-death (SIRVVD) model that can represent the states of the first and second…
In this study, we explore the dynamic interplay between the timing of vaccination campaigns and the trajectory of disease spread in a population. Through comprehensive data analysis and modeling, we have uncovered a counter-intuitive…
We study the influence of the rate of the attainment of herd immunity (HI), in the absence of an approved vaccine, on the vulnerable population. We essentially ask the question: how hard the evolution towards the desired herd immunity could…
Population-wide vaccination is critical for containing the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) pandemic when combined with restrictive and prevention measures. In this study, we introduce SAIVR, a mathematical model able to forecast the Covid-19 epidemic…
Effective strategies of vaccine prioritization are essential to mitigate the impacts of severe infectious diseases. We investigate the role of infection fatality ratio (IFR) and social contact matrices on vaccination prioritization using a…
There are often multiple diseases with cross immunity competing for vaccination resources. Here we investigate the optimal vaccination program in a two-layer Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, where two diseases with cross immunity…
Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population.…
Since the end of 2019, COVID-19 has significantly affected the lives of people around the world. Towards the end of 2020, several COVID-19 vaccine candidates with relatively high efficacy have been reported in the final phase of clinical…
The aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic saw more severe outcomes for racial minority groups and economically-deprived communities. Such disparities can be explained by several factors, including unequal access to healthcare, as well as the…
A novel coronavirus disease has emerged (later named COVID-19) and caused the world to enter a new reality, with many direct and indirect factors influencing it. Some are human-controllable (e.g. interventional policies, mobility and the…
Incorporating vaccination into mathematical models appears deceptively simple: models integrate vaccine-derived protections, such as reduced susceptibility to infection, using parameters informed by empirical estimates of vaccine efficacy…
In diseases with long-term immunity, vaccination is known to increase the average age at infection as a result of the decrease in the pathogen circulation. This implies that a vaccination campaign can have negative effects when a disease is…
COVID-19 will be a continuous threat to human population despite having a few vaccines at hand until we reach the endemic state through natural herd immunity and total immunization through universal vaccination. However, the vaccine acts as…
Successful predictive modeling of epidemics requires an understanding of the implicit feedback control strategies which are implemented by populations to modulate the spread of contagion. While this task of capturing endogenous behavior can…