Related papers: Modeling frequency distribution above a priority i…
Motivated by the need of the linking records across various databases, we propose a novel graphical model based classifier that uses a mixture of Poisson distributions with latent variables. The idea is to derive insight into each pair of…
We describe the Bedside Patient Rescue (BPR) project, the goal of which is risk prediction of adverse events for non-ICU patients using ~200 variables (vitals, lab results, assessments, ...). There are several missing predictor values for…
We propose in this paper a random intercept Poisson model in which the random effect distribution is assumed to follow a generalized log-gamma (GLG) distribution. We derive the first two moments for the marginal distribution as well as the…
Negative binomial regression is commonly employed to analyze overdispersed count data. With small to moderate sample sizes, the maximum likelihood estimator of the dispersion parameter may be subject to a significant bias, that in turn…
We propose a coupled bootstrap (CB) method for the test error of an arbitrary algorithm that estimates the mean in a Poisson sequence, often called the Poisson means problem. The idea behind our method is to generate two carefully-designed…
Data on count processes arise in a variety of applications, including longitudinal, spatial and imaging studies measuring count responses. The literature on statistical models for dependent count data is dominated by models built from…
For discrete-valued time series, predictive inference cannot be implemented through the construction of prediction intervals to some predetermined coverage level, as this is the case for real-valued time series. To address this problem, we…
The appropriateness of the Poisson model is frequently challenged when examining spatial count data marked by unbalanced distributions, over-dispersion, or under-dispersion. Moreover, traditional parametric models may inadequately capture…
In regression analysis of counts, a lack of simple and efficient algorithms for posterior computation has made Bayesian approaches appear unattractive and thus underdeveloped. We propose a lognormal and gamma mixed negative binomial (NB)…
Insurers are faced with the challenge of estimating the future reserves needed to handle historic and outstanding claims that are not fully settled. A well-known and widely used technique is the chain-ladder method, which is a deterministic…
Factor analysis for high-dimensional data is a canonical problem in statistics and has a wide range of applications. However, there is currently no factor model tailored to effectively analyze high-dimensional count responses with…
There are growing concerns for reserves estimation of incurred but not reported (IBNR) claims in actuarial sciences. In this paper, we propose a copula-based dependency model to capture the relationship between two main IBNR reserve…
In this paper we examine the claims reserving problem using Tweedie's compound Poisson model. We develop the maximum likelihood and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation approaches to fit the model and then compare the estimated…
This paper proposes a flexible and analytically tractable class of frequency and severity models for predicting insurance claims. The proposed model is able to capture nonlinear relationships in explanatory variables by characterizing the…
We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…
In recent years, a number of results have been developed which connect information measures and estimation measures under various models, including, predominently, Gaussian and Poisson models. More recent results due to Taborda and…
Standard count models such as the Poisson and Negative Binomial models often fail to capture the large proportion of zero claims commonly observed in insurance data. To address such issue of excessive zeros, zero-inflated and hurdle models…
This paper deals with the problem of model selection for a general class of integer-valued time series. We propose a penalized criterion based on the Poisson quasi-likelihood of the model. Under certain regularity conditions, the…
In this paper, we consider the problem of experience rating within the classic Markov chain life insurance framework. We begin by establishing a link between mixed Poisson distributions and the problem of pricing group disability insurance…
We focus on the development of diagnostic tools and an R package called MNB for a multivariate negative binomial (MNB) regression model for detecting atypical and influential subjects. The MNB model is deduced from a Poisson mixed model in…