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We study the statistical distribution of the closest encounter between generic smooth observations computed along different trajectories of a rapidly mixing dynamical system. At the limit of large trajectories, we obtain a distribution of…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2022-08-31 Theophile Caby

Classical multivariate statistics measures the outlyingness of a point by its Mahalanobis distance from the mean, which is based on the mean and the covariance matrix of the data. A multivariate depth function is a function which, given a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-06 Karl Mosler , Pavlo Mozharovskyi

Machine learning models are often evaluated using point estimates of performance metrics such as accuracy, F1 score, or mean squared error. Such summaries fail to capture the inherent variability induced by stochastic elements of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Christoph Lehmann , Yahor Paromau

Foundation models are a current focus of attention in both industry and academia. While they have shown their capabilities in a variety of tasks, in-depth research is required to determine their robustness to distribution shift when used as…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Xiruo Ding , Zhecheng Sheng , Brian Hur , Feng Chen , Serguei V. S. Pakhomov , Trevor Cohen

In the field of Machine Learning (ML) and data-driven applications, one of the significant challenge is the change in data distribution between the training and deployment stages, commonly known as distribution shift. This paper outlines…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Lakpa Tamang , Mohamed Reda Bouadjenek , Richard Dazeley , Sunil Aryal

In meta-analysis, the random-effects models are standard tools to address between-study heterogeneity in evidence synthesis analyses. For the random-effects distribution models, the normal distribution model has been adopted in most…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-28 Hisashi Noma , Kengo Nagashima , Shogo Kato , Satoshi Teramukai , Toshi A. Furukawa

Reliable generalization metrics are fundamental to the evaluation of machine learning models. Especially in high-stakes applications where labeled target data are scarce, evaluation of models' generalization performance under distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-10 Yunxiang Peng , Mengmeng Ma , Ziyu Yao , Xi Peng

Dialect classification is used in a variety of applications, such as machine translation and speech recognition, to improve the overall performance of the system. In a real-world scenario, a deployed dialect classification model can…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Sourya Dipta Das , Yash Vadi , Abhishek Unnam , Kuldeep Yadav

Understanding geometric properties of natural language processing models' latent spaces allows the manipulation of these properties for improved performance on downstream tasks. One such property is the amount of data spread in a model's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-02 Anna C. Marbut , Katy McKinney-Bock , Travis J. Wheeler

The crucial importance of metrics in machine learning algorithms has led to an increasing interest in optimizing distance and similarity functions, an area of research known as metric learning. When data consist of feature vectors, a large…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-25 Aurélien Bellet

For many machine learning algorithms, two main assumptions are required to guarantee performance. One is that the test data are drawn from the same distribution as the training data, and the other is that the model is correctly specified.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-03 Kun Kuang , Ruoxuan Xiong , Peng Cui , Susan Athey , Bo Li

Systematics contaminate observables, leading to distribution shifts relative to theoretically simulated signals-posing a major challenge for using pre-trained models to label such observables. Since systematics are often poorly understood…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-11-18 Sultan Hassan , Sambatra Andrianomena , Benjamin D. Wandelt

Data distribution shift is a common problem in machine learning-powered smart city applications where the test data differs from the training data. Augmenting smart city applications with online machine learning models can handle this issue…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Shawqi Al-Maliki , Faissal El Bouanani , Mohamed Abdallah , Junaid Qadir , Ala Al-Fuqaha

Transfer learning, or domain adaptation, is concerned with machine learning problems in which training and testing data come from possibly different probability distributions. In this work, we give an information-theoretic analysis of the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-08-09 Xuetong Wu , Jonathan H. Manton , Uwe Aickelin , Jingge Zhu

In natural phenomena, data distributions often deviate from normality. One can think of cataclysms as a self-explanatory example: events that occur almost never, and at the same time are many standard deviations away from the common…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-16 Nuno Costa , Nuno Moniz

For machine learning systems to be reliable, we must understand their performance in unseen, out-of-distribution environments. In this paper, we empirically show that out-of-distribution performance is strongly correlated with…

Varying domains and biased datasets can lead to differences between the training and the target distributions, known as covariate shift. Current approaches for alleviating this often rely on estimating the ratio of training and target…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-27 Bijan Mazaheri , Siddharth Jain , Jehoshua Bruck

Hyper-differential sensitivity analysis with respect to model discrepancy was recently developed to enable uncertainty quantification for optimization problems. The approach consists of two primary steps: (i) Bayesian calibration of the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-09 Joseph Hart , Bart van Bloemen Waanders , Jixian Li , Timbwaoga A. J. Ouermi , Chris R. Johnson

We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals for the locations of change points in a high-dimensional mean shift model. To that end, we develop a locally refitted least squares estimator and obtain component-wise and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-21 Abhishek Kaul , George Michailidis

Datasets with extreme observations and/or heavy-tailed error distributions are commonly encountered and should be analyzed with careful consideration of these features from a statistical perspective. Small deviations from an assumed model,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-12 Meadhbh O'Neill , Kevin Burke