Related papers: Quantifying Distribution Shifts and Uncertainties …

We study the problem of distribution shift generally arising in machine-learning augmented hybrid simulation, where parts of simulation algorithms are replaced by data-driven surrogates. We first establish a mathematical framework to…

We propose a new method for generating realistic datasets with distribution shifts using any decoder-based generative model. Our approach systematically creates datasets with varying intensities of distribution shifts, facilitating a…

With the massive data challenges nowadays and the rapid growing of technology, stream mining has recently received considerable attention. To address the large number of scenarios in which this phenomenon manifests itself suitable tools are…

In real word applications, data generating process for training a machine learning model often differs from what the model encounters in the test stage. Understanding how and whether machine learning models generalize under such…

Hyperbolic balance laws with uncertain (random) parameters and inputs are ubiquitous in science and engineering. Quantification of uncertainty in predictions derived from such laws, and reduction of predictive uncertainty via data…

Models for heteroskedastic data are relevant in a wide variety of applications ranging from financial time series to environmental statistics. However, the topic of modeling the variance function conditionally has not seen near as much…

Distribution shift occurs when the test distribution differs from the training distribution, and it can considerably degrade performance of machine learning models deployed in the real world. Temporal shifts -- distribution shifts arising…

Diffusion models are a class of generative models that serve to establish a stochastic transport map between an empirically observed, yet unknown, target distribution and a known prior. Despite their remarkable success in real-world…

Distribution shifts remain a fundamental problem for the safe application of machine learning systems. If undetected, they may impact the real-world performance of such systems or will at least render original performance claims invalid. In…

Synthetic data can improve generalization when real data is scarce, but excessive reliance may introduce distributional mismatches that degrade performance. In this paper, we present a learning-theoretic framework to quantify the trade-off…

This study systematically compared data-driven and model-based strategies for metabolite quantification in magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS), focusing on resilience to out-of-distribution (OoD) effects and the balance between accuracy,…

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification method that has gained popularity in the machine learning community due to its finite-sample guarantees and ease of use. Its most common variant, dubbed split conformal…

Analysis of a probabilistic system often requires to learn the joint probability distribution of its random variables. The computation of the exact distribution is usually an exhaustive precise analysis on all executions of the system. To…

Distribution shifts introduce uncertainty that undermines the robustness and generalization capabilities of machine learning models. While conventional wisdom suggests that learning causal-invariant representations enhances robustness to…

We propose a novel approach for quantifying deviations from Gaussianity by leveraging the permutation Jensen-Shannon distance. Using stable distributions as a flexible framework, we analyze the effects of skewness and heavy tails in…

Regression evaluation has been performed for decades. Some metrics have been identified to be robust against shifting and scaling of the data but considering the different distributions of data is much more difficult to address (imbalance…

Change-point detection has been a classical problem in statistics and econometrics. This work focuses on the problem of detecting abrupt distributional changes in the data-generating distribution of a sequence of high-dimensional…

Enhancing the stability of machine learning algorithms under distributional shifts is at the heart of the Out-of-Distribution (OOD) Generalization problem. Derived from causal learning, recent works of invariant learning pursue strict…

Generating high quality uncertainty estimates for sequential regression, particularly deep recurrent networks, remains a challenging and open problem. Existing approaches often make restrictive assumptions (such as stationarity) yet still…

Distribution shifts between sites can seriously degrade model performance since models are prone to exploiting unstable correlations. Thus, many methods try to find features that are stable across sites and discard unstable features.…