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Related papers: Demistifying Inference after Adaptive Experiments

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We address the problem of identifying the optimal policy with a fixed confidence level in a multi-armed bandit setup, when \emph{the arms are subject to linear constraints}. Unlike the standard best-arm identification problem which is well…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-26 Emil Carlsson , Debabrota Basu , Fredrik D. Johansson , Devdatt Dubhashi

In a wide variety of applications, including personalization, we want to measure the difference in outcome due to an intervention and thus have to deal with counterfactual inference. The feedback from a customer in any of these situations…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-08-24 Abhimanyu Mitra , Kannan Achan , Sushant Kumar

Estimators computed from adaptively collected data do not behave like their non-adaptive brethren. Rather, the sequential dependence of the collection policy can lead to severe distributional biases that persist even in the infinite data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-06 Yash Deshpande , Lester Mackey , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Matt Taddy

Rerandomization is a strategy of increasing efficiency as compared to complete randomization. The idea with rerandomization is that of removing allocations with imbalance in the observed covariates and then randomizing within the set of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-07 Junni L. Zhang , Per Johansson

Standard bandit algorithms that assume continual reallocation of measurement effort are challenging to implement due to delayed feedback and infrastructural/organizational difficulties. Motivated by practical instances involving a handful…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-16 Ethan Che , Hongseok Namkoong

Many interventions, such as vaccines in clinical trials or coupons in online marketplaces, must be assigned sequentially without full knowledge of their effects. Multi-armed bandit algorithms have proven successful in such settings.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-07 Aidan Gleich , Eric Laber , Alexander Volfovsky

In this paper, we discuss the asymptotic behavior of the Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithm in the context of multiarmed bandit problems and discuss its implication in downstream inferential tasks. While inferential tasks become…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-09 Koulik Khamaru , Cun-Hui Zhang

We study the problem of using causal models to improve the rate at which good interventions can be learned online in a stochastic environment. Our formalism combines multi-arm bandits and causal inference to model a novel type of bandit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-13 Finnian Lattimore , Tor Lattimore , Mark D. Reid

Sampling from the equilibrium distribution has always been a major problem in molecular simulations due to the very high dimensionality of conformational space. Over several decades, many approaches have been used to overcome the problem.…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-03-02 Adrià Pérez , Pablo Herrera-Nieto , Stefan Doerr , Gianni De Fabritiis

Clinical trials are an instrument for making informed decisions based on evidence from well-designed experiments. Here we consider adaptive designs mainly from the perspective of multi-arm Phase II clinical trials, in which one or more…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-31 Elja Arjas , Dario Gasbarra

An artificial intelligence (AI) model can be viewed as a function that maps inputs to outputs in high-dimensional spaces. Once designed and well trained, the AI model is applied for inference. However, even optimized AI models can produce…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Sha Hu

Clinical machine learning applications are often plagued with confounders that are clinically irrelevant, but can still artificially boost the predictive performance of the algorithms. Confounding is especially problematic in mobile health…

Applications · Statistics 2018-11-29 Elias Chaibub Neto

An extension of the traditional two-armed bandit problem is considered, in which the decision maker has access to some side information before deciding which arm to pull. At each time t, before making a selection, the decision maker is able…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2007-07-16 Chih-Chun Wang , Sanjeev R. Kulkarni , H. Vincent Poor

Matching is a widely used causal inference design that aims to approximate a randomized experiment using observational data by forming matched sets of treated and control units based on similarities in their covariates. Ideally, treated…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-06 Jianan Zhu , Jeffrey Zhang , Zijian Guo , Siyu Heng

The improving multi-armed bandits problem is a formal model for allocating effort under uncertainty, motivated by scenarios such as investing research effort into new technologies, performing clinical trials, and hyperparameter selection…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Avrim Blum , Marten Garicano , Kavya Ravichandran , Dravyansh Sharma

Evaluation of treatment effects and more general estimands is typically achieved via parametric modelling, which is unsatisfactory since model misspecification is likely. Data-adaptive model building (e.g. statistical/machine learning) is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-14 Oliver Hines , Oliver Dukes , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Stijn Vansteelandt

Adaptive and sequential experiment design is a well-studied area in numerous domains. We survey and synthesize the work of the online statistical learning paradigm referred to as multi-armed bandits integrating the existing research as a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-04 Giuseppe Burtini , Jason Loeppky , Ramon Lawrence

Covariate-adaptive randomization schemes such as the minimization and stratified permuted blocks are often applied in clinical trials to balance treatment assignments across prognostic factors. The existing theoretical developments on…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-21 Ting Ye , Yanyao Yi , Jun Shao

Contextual bandits often provide simple and effective personalization in decision making problems, making them popular tools to deliver personalized interventions in mobile health as well as other health applications. However, when bandits…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-28 Jiayu Yao , Emma Brunskill , Weiwei Pan , Susan Murphy , Finale Doshi-Velez

The stochastic multi-armed bandit problem is a well-known model for studying the exploration-exploitation trade-off. It has significant possible applications in adaptive clinical trials, which allow for dynamic changes in the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-11 Hossein Aboutalebi , Doina Precup , Tibor Schuster