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Related papers: Demistifying Inference after Adaptive Experiments

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Adaptive experiments are used extensively in online platforms, healthcare and biotechnology, and a variety of other settings. In many of these applications, the main goal is not to precisely estimate a treatment effect, but to demonstrate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Guido Imbens , Lorenzo Masoero , Alexander Rakhlin , Thomas S. Richardson , Suhas Vijaykumar

Multi-arm bandit experimental designs are increasingly being adopted over standard randomized trials due to their potential to improve outcomes for study participants, enable faster identification of the best-performing options, and/or…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-04 Brian M Cho , Aurélien Bibaut , Nathan Kallus

Bandit algorithms are increasingly used in real-world sequential decision-making problems. Associated with this is an increased desire to be able to use the resulting datasets to answer scientific questions like: Did one type of ad lead to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Kelly W. Zhang , Lucas Janson , Susan A. Murphy

Scientific experimentation is largely driven by statistical hypothesis testing to determine significant differences in interventions. Traditionally, experimenters allocate samples uniformly between each intervention. However, such an…

Adaptive experiment designs can dramatically improve statistical efficiency in randomized trials, but they also complicate statistical inference. For example, it is now well known that the sample mean is biased in adaptive trials.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-16 Vitor Hadad , David A. Hirshberg , Ruohan Zhan , Stefan Wager , Susan Athey

We study batched bandit experiments and consider the problem of inference conditional on the realized stopping time, assignment probabilities, and target parameter, where all of these may be chosen adaptively using information up to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Jiafeng Chen , Isaiah Andrews

Multi armed bandit (MAB) algorithms have been increasingly used to complement or integrate with A/B tests and randomized clinical trials in e-commerce, healthcare, and policymaking. Recent developments incorporate possible delayed feedback.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-04 Lei Shi , Jingshen Wang , Tianhao Wu

Contextual bandit algorithms have transformed modern experimentation by enabling real-time adaptation for personalized treatment and efficient use of data. Yet these advantages create challenges for statistical inference due to adaptivity.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-23 Yongyi Guo , Ziping Xu

Multi-arm bandits are gaining popularity as they enable real-world sequential decision-making across application areas, including clinical trials, recommender systems, and online decision-making. Consequently, there is an increased desire…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-01 Dae Woong Ham , Iavor Bojinov , Michael Lindon , Martin Tingley

Adaptive treatment assignment algorithms, such as bandit algorithms, are increasingly used in digital health intervention clinical trials. Frequently, the data collected from these trials is used to conduct causal inference and related data…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-30 Kelly W. Zhang , Nowell Closser , Anna L. Trella , Susan A. Murphy

Multi-armed bandit algorithms have been argued for decades as useful for adaptively randomized experiments. In such experiments, an algorithm varies which arms (e.g. alternative interventions to help students learn) are assigned to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-29 Joseph Jay Williams , Jacob Nogas , Nina Deliu , Hammad Shaikh , Sofia S. Villar , Audrey Durand , Anna Rafferty

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-03-03 Cynthia Dwork , Vitaly Feldman , Moritz Hardt , Toniann Pitassi , Omer Reingold , Aaron Roth

We consider the problem of efficient inference of the Average Treatment Effect in a sequential experiment where the policy governing the assignment of subjects to treatment or control can change over time. We first provide a central limit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-05 Thomas Cook , Alan Mishler , Aaditya Ramdas

We investigate experiments that are designed to select a treatment arm for population deployment. Multi-armed bandit algorithms can enhance efficiency by dynamically allocating measurement effort towards higher performing arms based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-29 Chao Qin , Daniel Russo

Randomized experiments have been the gold standard for assessing the effectiveness of a treatment or policy. The classical complete randomization approach assigns treatments based on a prespecified probability and may lead to inefficient…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-26 Waverly Wei , Xinwei Ma , Jingshen Wang

Adaptive designs for multi-armed clinical trials have become increasingly popular recently in many areas of medical research because of their potential to shorten development times and to increase patient response. However, developing…

Applications · Statistics 2017-03-16 Adam Smith , Sofia S. Villar

When data are collected adaptively, such as in bandit algorithms, classical statistical approaches such as ordinary least squares and $M$-estimation will often fail to achieve asymptotic normality. Although recent lines of work have…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 James Leiner , Robin Dunn , Aaditya Ramdas

Practitioners conducting adaptive experiments often encounter two competing priorities: maximizing total welfare (or `reward') through effective treatment assignment and swiftly concluding experiments to implement population-wide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Chao Qin , Daniel Russo

We establish an asymptotic framework for the statistical analysis of the stochastic contextual multi-armed bandit problem (CMAB), which is widely employed in adaptively randomized experiments across various fields. While algorithms for…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-21 Ramon van den Akker , Bas J. M. Werker , Bo Zhou

We propose an adaptive sampling approach for multiple testing which aims to maximize statistical power while ensuring anytime false discovery control. We consider $n$ distributions whose means are partitioned by whether they are below or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-18 Kevin Jamieson , Lalit Jain
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