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Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is a classical and widely used surrogate modeling technique in physical simulation and uncertainty quantification. By taking a linear combination of a set of basis polynomials - orthonormal with respect to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Johannes Exenberger , Sascha Ranftl , Robert Peharz

Geostatistics is a branch of statistics concerned with stochastic processes over continuous domains, with Gaussian processes (GPs) providing a flexible and principled modelling framework. However, the high computational cost of simulating…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-20 Flávio B. Gonçalves , Marcos O. Prates , Gareth O. Roberts

This paper introduces a new generalized polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) comprising measure-consistent multivariate orthonormal polynomials in dependent random variables. Unlike existing PCEs, whether classical or generalized, no…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-04-17 Sharif Rahman

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) are well-suited to quantifying uncertainty in models parameterized by independent random variables. The assumption of independence leads to simple strategies for evaluating PCE coefficients. In contrast,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-05-04 John Jakeman , Fabian Franzelin , Akil Narayan , Michael Eldred , Dirk Plfueger

Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is a versatile tool widely used in uncertainty quantification and machine learning, but its successful application depends strongly on the accuracy and reliability of the resulting PCE-based response…

Computation · Statistics 2023-06-14 Paul-Christian Bürkner , Ilja Kröker , Sergey Oladyshkin , Wolfgang Nowak

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) are widely used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, particularly in the applied mathematics community. However, PCE has received comparatively less attention in the statistics literature, and fully…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-30 Kellin N. Rumsey , Devin Francom , Graham C. Gibson , J. Derek Tucker , Gabriel Huerta

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) allow us to propagate uncertainties in the coefficients of differential equations to the statistics of their solutions. Their main advantage is that they replace stochastic equations by systems of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-04-25 H. Cagan Ozen , Guillaume Bal

This research proposes a flexible Bayesian extension of the composite Gaussian process (CGP) model of Ba and Joseph (2012) for predicting (stationary or) non-stationary $y(\mathbf{x})$. The CGP generalizes the regression plus stationary…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-27 Casey B. Davis , Christopher M. Hans , Thomas J. Santner

Multi-robot systems require scalable and federated methods to model complex environments under computational and communication constraints. Gaussian Processes (GPs) offer robust probabilistic modeling, but suffer from cubic computational…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Sanket A. Salunkhe , George P. Kontoudis

We present a new approach for constructing a data-driven surrogate model and using it for Bayesian parameter estimation in partial differential equation (PDE) models. We first use parameter observations and Gaussian Process regression to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-07-15 Jing Li , Alexandre M Tartakovsky

Machine learning (ML) surrogate models are increasingly used in engineering analysis and design to replace computationally expensive simulation models, significantly reducing computational cost and accelerating decision-making processes.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-22 Xiaoping Du

Model predictive control is an advanced control approach for multivariable systems with constraints, which is reliant on an accurate dynamic model. Most real dynamic models are however affected by uncertainties, which can lead to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-03-10 E. Bradford , L. Imsland

Standard Gaussian Process (GP) regression, a powerful machine learning tool, is computationally expensive when it is applied to large datasets, and potentially inaccurate when data points are sparsely distributed in a high-dimensional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-03-08 Z. Zhang , K. Duraisamy , N. A. Gumerov

The vast quantity of information brought by big data as well as the evolving computer hardware encourages success stories in the machine learning community. In the meanwhile, it poses challenges for the Gaussian process (GP) regression, a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-10 Haitao Liu , Yew-Soon Ong , Xiaobo Shen , Jianfei Cai

In this work, a Gaussian process regression(GPR) model incorporated with given physical information in partial differential equations(PDEs) is developed: physics-assisted Gaussian processes(PAGP). The targets of this model can be divided…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-07 Jiahao Zhang , Shiqi Zhang , Guang Lin

This paper addresses the Bayesian calibration of dynamic models with parametric and structural uncertainties, in particular where the uncertain parameters are unknown/poorly known spatio-temporally varying subsystem models. Independent…

Computation · Statistics 2012-11-02 Piyush Tagade , Han-Lim Choi

We present a Gaussian Process - Latent Class Choice Model (GP-LCCM) to integrate a non-parametric class of probabilistic machine learning within discrete choice models (DCMs). Gaussian Processes (GPs) are kernel-based algorithms that…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-02 Georges Sfeir , Filipe Rodrigues , Maya Abou-Zeid

Surrogate modeling of costly mathematical models representing physical systems is challenging since it is typically not possible to create a large experimental design. Thus, it is beneficial to constrain the approximation to adhere to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Lukáš Novák , Himanshu Sharma , Michael D. Shields

Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used in nonparametric regression, classification and spatio-temporal modeling, motivated in part by a rich literature on theoretical properties. However, a well known drawback of GPs that limits their use…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-06-29 Anjishnu Banerjee , David Dunson , Surya Tokdar

Gaussian process (GP) models provide a powerful tool for prediction but are computationally prohibitive using large data sets. In such scenarios, one has to resort to approximate methods. We derive an approximation based on a composite…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-02 Xiuming Liu , Dave Zachariah , Edith C. H. Ngai
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