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In this short article, we present a solution to one of the probability puzzles that Daniel Litt, a mathematician at the University of Toronto, posted on his X account earlier this year. The main goal of this note is to show how some of the…
Likelihood-free methods, such as approximate Bayesian computation, are powerful tools for practical inference problems with intractable likelihood functions. Markov chain Monte Carlo and sequential Monte Carlo variants of approximate…
Approximate Bayesian inference for neural networks is considered a robust alternative to standard training, often providing good performance on out-of-distribution data. However, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with high-fidelity…
We design new visual illusions by finding "adversarial examples" for principled models of human perception -- specifically, for probabilistic models, which treat vision as Bayesian inference. To perform this search efficiently, we design a…
Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) encodes prior knowledge of the world in a model and represents uncertainty in model parameters by maintaining a probability distribution over them. This paper presents Monte Carlo BRL (MC-BRL), a simple…
The multinomial model is one of the simplest statistical models. When constraints are placed on the possible values for the probabilities, however, it becomes much more difficult to deal with. Model checking and checking for prior-data…
A considerable body of work in AI has been concerned with aggregating measures of confirmatory and disconfirmatory evidence for a common set of propositions. Claiming classical probability to be inadequate or inappropriate, several…
In this paper I give overviews of the polysymplectic approach to covariant Hamiltonian field theory and the simplest geometric quantization of classical particle theories. I then give a synopsis of a recently proposed toy model for applying…
Bayes nets are extensively used in practice to efficiently represent joint probability distributions over a set of random variables and capture dependency relations. In a seminal paper, Chickering et al. (JMLR 2004) showed that given a…
The concept of causality has a controversial history. The question of whether it is possible to represent and address causal problems with probability theory, or if fundamentally new mathematics such as the do-calculus is required has been…
Bayesian inference for spatial point patterns is often hindered computationally by intractable likelihoods. In the frequentist literature, estimating equations utilizing pseudolikelihoods have long been used for simulation-free parameter…
The problem of the priors is well known: it concerns the challenge of identifying norms that govern one's prior credences. I argue that a key to addressing this problem lies in considering what I call the problem of the posteriors -- the…
Embodied intelligence posits that cognitive capabilities fundamentally emerge from - and are shaped by - an agent's real-time sensorimotor interactions with its environment. Such adaptive behavior inherently requires continuous inference…
Many researchers have voiced their support towards Pearl's counterfactual theory of causation as a stepping stone for AI/ML research's ultimate goal of intelligent systems. As in any other growing subfield, patience seems to be a virtue…
In this paper we prove the probabilistic continuous complexity conjecture. In continuous complexity theory, this states that the complexity of solving a continuous problem with probability approaching 1 converges (in this limit) to the…
This paper presents an overview of some of the concepts of Bayesian Learning. The number of scientific and industrial applications of Bayesian learning has been growing in size rapidly over the last few decades. This process has started…
There are two main opposing schools of statistical reasoning, Frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Until recent days, the frequentist or classical approach has dominated the scientific research, but Bayesianism has reappeared with a strong…
We consider an acoustic obstacle reconstruction problem with Poisson data. Due to the stochastic nature of the data, we tackle this problem in the framework of Bayesian inversion. The unknown obstacle is parameterized in its angular form.…
Particle physics experiments such as those run in the Large Hadron Collider result in huge quantities of data, which are boiled down to a few numbers from which it is hoped that a signal will be detected. We discuss a simple probability…
In an era where learning is considered a problem, we decided to go for problems for the sake of learning! The purpose of this study was to throw light on the issues involved in two forms of PBL viz., Case Study Based PBL and Research Based…