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Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Constructing valid and informative conformal prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs remains a fundamental challenge. While conformal prediction provides finite-sample, distribution-free coverage guarantees, its practical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-11 Zhenhan Fang , Aixin Tan , Jian Huang

This article provides an overview on the statistical modeling of complex data as increasingly encountered in modern data analysis. It is argued that such data can often be described as elements of a metric space that satisfies certain…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-28 Paromita Dubey , Yaqing Chen , Hans-Georg Müller

In machine learning and computer vision, optimal transport has had significant success in learning generative models and defining metric distances between structured and stochastic data objects, that can be cast as probability measures. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Anton Mallasto , Markus Heinonen , Samuel Kaski

In this paper, we study the optimal transport problem induced by separable cost functions. In this framework, transportation can be expressed as the composition of two lower-dimensional movements. Through this reformulation, we prove that…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-05-18 Gennaro Auricchio

Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. Many existing methods only address the average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-21 Xing Han , Ziyang Tang , Joydeep Ghosh , Qiang Liu

Conformal inference is a fundamental and versatile tool that provides distribution-free guarantees for many machine learning tasks. We consider the transductive setting, where decisions are made on a test sample of $m$ new points, giving…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-20 Ulysse Gazin , Gilles Blanchard , Etienne Roquain

A general theory is provided delivering convergence of maximal cyclically monotone mappings containing the supports of coupling measures of sequences of pairs of possibly random probability measures on Euclidean space. The theory is based…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-05 Johan Segers

We develop a unified framework for testing independence and quantifying association between random objects that are located in general metric spaces. Special cases include functional and high-dimensional data as well as networks, covariance…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Hang Zhou , Hans-Georg Müller

In compact settings, the convergence rate of the empirical optimal transport cost to its population value is well understood for a wide class of spaces and cost functions. In unbounded settings, however, hitherto available results require…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-24 Thomas Staudt , Shayan Hundrieser

Predictive inference is a fundamental task in statistics, traditionally addressed using parametric assumptions about the data distribution and detailed analyses of how models learn from data. In recent years, conformal prediction has…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-26 Matteo Sesia , Stefano Favaro

Conformal prediction is a non-parametric technique for constructing prediction intervals or sets from arbitrary predictive models under the assumption that the data is exchangeable. It is popular as it comes with theoretical guarantees on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-01 Jase Clarkson , Wenkai Xu , Mihai Cucuringu , Yvik Swan , Gesine Reinert

Structured variational inference constitutes a core methodology in modern statistical applications. Unlike mean-field variational inference, the approximate posterior is assumed to have interdependent structure. We consider the natural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-14 Shunan Sheng , Bohan Wu , Bennett Zhu , Sinho Chewi , Aram-Alexandre Pooladian

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification method that has gained popularity in the machine learning community due to its finite-sample guarantees and ease of use. Its most common variant, dubbed split conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Christos Louizos

Optimal transport is widely used to learn distributions, enforce distributional constraints, and model uncertainty. In applications, transport losses are often computed from samples through tractable representations, such as one-dimensional…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Tam Le

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free technique for establishing valid prediction intervals. Although conventionally people conduct conformal prediction in the output space, this is not the only possibility. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Jiaye Teng , Chuan Wen , Dinghuai Zhang , Yoshua Bengio , Yang Gao , Yang Yuan

This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Yanfei Zhou , Matteo Sesia

We consider the problem of finding an optimal transport plan between an absolutely continuous measure $\mu$ on $\mathcal{X} \subset \mathbb{R}^d$ and a finitely supported measure $\nu$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$ when the transport cost is the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-10-08 Valentin Hartmann , Dominic Schuhmacher

Split conformal prediction provides finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, but this guarantee averages over the random calibration sample. We study instead the law of the calibration-conditional coverage induced by a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-20 Thiago R. Ramos , Helton Graziadei , Luben M. C. Cabezas

Conformal inference is a statistical method used to construct prediction sets for point predictors, providing reliable uncertainty quantification with probability guarantees. This method utilizes historical labeled data to estimate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Xiaoyi Su , Zhixin Zhou , Rui Luo
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