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Conformal prediction (CP) is an important tool for distribution-free predictive uncertainty quantification. Yet, a major challenge is to balance computational efficiency and prediction accuracy, particularly for multiple predictions. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-17 Kiljae Lee , Yuan Zhang

While Conformal Prediction (CP) has proven to be a powerful framework for uncertainty quantification, guaranteeing conditional coverage remains a central challenge. Although finite-sample, distribution-free conditional validity is known to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-27 Félix Laplante

Conformal prediction (CP) gives distribution-free coverage for modern vision and language models, but it is often forced to make a ranking decision from a single unstable nonconformity score. Standard CP uses one realization, while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Jiapeng Zeng , Yogesh Prabhu , Zhanpeng Zeng , Michael A. Newton , Vikas Singh

Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Nikolaos Bousias , Lars Lindemann , George Pappas

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-09 Yaniv Romano , Evan Patterson , Emmanuel J. Candès

Conformal prediction (CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length. This work critically examines the sufficiency of these standard metrics. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 Yizhou Min , Yizhou Lu , Lanqi Li , Zhen Zhang , Jiaye Teng

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification that converts a pretrained model's point prediction into a prediction set, with the set size reflecting the model's confidence. Although existing CP methods are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-18 Shuqi Liu , Jianguo Huang , Luke Ong

The conformalClassification package implements Transductive Conformal Prediction (TCP) and Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for classification problems. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a framework that complements the predictions of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-17 Niharika Gauraha , Ola Spjuth

Randomized smoothing has shown promising certified robustness against adversaries in classification tasks. Despite such success with only zeroth-order access to base models, randomized smoothing has not been extended to a general form of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-16 Aref Miri Rekavandi , Olga Ohrimenko , Benjamin I. P. Rubinstein

As ML models are increasingly deployed in critical applications, robustness against adversarial perturbations is crucial. While numerous defenses have been proposed to counter such attacks, they typically assume that all adversarial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-11 Yuan Xin , Dingfan Chen , Michael Backes , Xiao Zhang

Despite decades of research and recent progress in adaptive control and reinforcement learning, there remains a fundamental lack of understanding in designing controllers that provide robustness to inherent non-asymptotic uncertainties…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-13 Benjamin Gravell , Tyler Summers

The safe integration of machine learning modules in decision-making processes hinges on their ability to quantify uncertainty. A popular technique to achieve this goal is conformal prediction (CP), which transforms an arbitrary base…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Matteo Zecchin , Sangwoo Park , Osvaldo Simeone , Fredrik Hellström

Ordinal classification has been widely applied in many high-stakes applications, e.g., medical imaging and diagnosis, where reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for decision making. Conformal prediction (CP) is a general UQ…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Zijian Zhang , Xinyu Chen , Yuanjie Shi , Liyuan Lillian Ma , Zifan Xu , Yan Yan

Randomized smoothing has achieved great success for certified robustness against adversarial perturbations. Given any arbitrary classifier, randomized smoothing can guarantee the classifier's prediction over the perturbed input with…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-08-22 Hanbin Hong , Yuan Hong

Robust causal discovery from observational data under imperfect prior knowledge remains a significant and largely unresolved challenge. Existing methods typically presuppose perfect priors or can only handle specific, pre-identified error…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Zidong Wang , Xi Lin , Chuchao He , Xiaoguang Gao

Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Chen Xu , Hanyang Jiang , Yao Xie

Conformal prediction offers a distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees. In practice, multiple valid conformal prediction sets may be available, arising from different models or methodologies.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-26 Mahmoud Hegazy , Liviu Aolaritei , Michael I. Jordan , Aymeric Dieuleveut

Conformal predictions make it possible to define reliable and robust learning algorithms. But they are essentially a method for evaluating whether an algorithm is good enough to be used in practice. To define a reliable learning framework…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-18 Alberto Carlevaro , Teodoro Alamo Cantarero , Fabrizio Dabbene , Maurizio Mongelli

In this paper, we present Robust Model Predictive Control (MPC) problems with adjustable uncertainty sets. In contrast to standard Robust MPC problems with known uncertainty sets, we treat the uncertainty sets in our problems as additional…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-09-21 Yeojun Kim , Xiaojing Zhang , Jacopo Guanetti , Francesco Borrelli

Autonomous systems increasingly rely on machine learning techniques to transform high-dimensional raw inputs into predictions that are then used for decision-making and control. However, it is often easy to maliciously manipulate such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Jinghan Yang , Hunmin Kim , Wenbin Wan , Naira Hovakimyan , Yevgeniy Vorobeychik