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Large language model (LLM) scaling laws are empirical formulas that estimate changes in model quality as a result of increasing parameter count and training data. However, these formulas, including the popular Deepmind Chinchilla scaling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Nikhil Sardana , Jacob Portes , Sasha Doubov , Jonathan Frankle

Training compute is increasingly outpacing the availability of high-quality data. This shifts the central challenge from optimal compute allocation to extracting maximum value from limited data. The widely adopted Chinchilla scaling law…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Justin Lovelace , Christian Belardi , Srivatsa Kundurthy , Shriya Sudhakar , Kilian Q. Weinberger

The quality of Large Language Model (LLM) pretraining depends on multiple factors, including the compute budget and the choice of optimization algorithm. Empirical scaling laws are widely used to predict loss as model size and training data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-25 Alexandra Volkova , Mher Safaryan , Christoph H. Lampert , Dan Alistarh

Scaling the number of parameters and the size of training data has proven to be an effective strategy for improving large language model (LLM) performance. Yet, as these models grow increasingly powerful and widely deployed, the cost of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Song Bian , Tao Yu , Shivaram Venkataraman , Youngsuk Park

We investigate the optimal model size and number of tokens for training a transformer language model under a given compute budget. We find that current large language models are significantly undertrained, a consequence of the recent focus…

Scaling laws are useful guides for derisking expensive training runs, as they predict performance of large models using cheaper, small-scale experiments. However, there remain gaps between current scaling studies and how language models are…

A primary cost driver for training large models is wall-clock training time. We show that popular time estimates based on FLOPs are poor estimates, and construct a more accurate proxy based on memory copies. This allows us to accurately…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-25 Itay Inbar , Luke Sernau

We study empirical scaling laws for language model performance on the cross-entropy loss. The loss scales as a power-law with model size, dataset size, and the amount of compute used for training, with some trends spanning more than seven…

Kaplan et al. [2020] (`Kaplan') and Hoffmann et al. [2022] (`Chinchilla') studied the scaling behavior of transformers trained on next-token language prediction. These studies produced different estimates for how the number of parameters…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-22 Tim Pearce , Jinyeop Song

Scaling laws for language model training traditionally characterize how performance scales with model size and dataset volume. Prior work has explored architecture variants and data treatments such as dataset filtering and noise injection…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Anirudh Subramanyam , Yuxin Chen , Robert L. Grossman

In recent years, the state-of-the-art in deep learning has been dominated by very large models that have been pre-trained on vast amounts of data. The paradigm is very simple: investing more computational resources (optimally) leads to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Sotiris Anagnostidis , Gregor Bachmann , Imanol Schlag , Thomas Hofmann

We study the empirical scaling laws of a family of encoder-decoder autoregressive transformer models on the task of joint motion forecasting and planning in the autonomous driving domain. Using a 500 thousand hours driving dataset, we…

Scaling laws are powerful tools to predict the performance of large language models. However, current scaling laws fall short of accounting for inference costs. In this work, we first show that model architecture affects inference latency,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Song Bian , Minghao Yan , Shivaram Venkataraman

The scaling laws guiding modern model training were calibrated for a single regime: data-rich, single-epoch pretraining. The dominant such scaling law form, Chinchilla's $L = E + A/N^\alpha + B/D^\beta$, has three structural limitations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Christopher M. Bryant , Hao Liu

Why do larger language models generalize better? To investigate this question, we develop generalization bounds on the pretraining objective of large language models (LLMs) in the compute-optimal regime, as described by the Chinchilla…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-22 Marc Finzi , Sanyam Kapoor , Diego Granziol , Anming Gu , Christopher De Sa , J. Zico Kolter , Andrew Gordon Wilson

We study the compute-optimal trade-off between model and training data set sizes for large neural networks. Our result suggests a linear relation similar to that supported by the empirical analysis of chinchilla. While that work studies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-20 Hong Jun Jeon , Benjamin Van Roy

Scaling laws predict the loss of a target machine learning model by extrapolating from easier-to-train models with fewer parameters or smaller training sets. This provides an efficient way for practitioners and researchers alike to compare…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Leshem Choshen , Yang Zhang , Jacob Andreas

Code Large Language Models (LLMs) are revolutionizing software engineering. However, scaling laws that guide the efficient training are predominantly analyzed on Natural Language (NL). Given the fundamental differences like strict syntax…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Xianzhen Luo , Wenzhen Zheng , Qingfu Zhu , Rongyi Zhang , Houyi Li , Siming Huang , YuanTao Fan , Wanxiang Che

Pretraining large language models (LLMs) is resource-intensive, often requiring months of training time even with high-end GPU clusters. There are two approaches of mitigating such computational demands: reusing smaller models to train…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Seng Pei Liew , Takuya Kato , Sho Takase

Scaling laws guide the development of large language models (LLMs) by offering estimates for the optimal balance of model size, tokens, and compute. More recently, loss-to-loss scaling laws that relate losses across pretraining datasets and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Prasanna Mayilvahanan , Thaddäus Wiedemer , Sayak Mallick , Matthias Bethge , Wieland Brendel
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