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Many applications collect a large number of time series, for example, the financial data of companies quoted in a stock exchange, the health care data of all patients that visit the emergency room of a hospital, or the temperature sequences…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-02-09 Jonathan Mei , José M. F. Moura

In the past decades, most work in the area of data analysis and machine learning was focused on optimizing predictive models and getting better results than what was possible with existing models. To what extent the metrics with which such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-06 Nicolas Dewolf

Convolutional image classifiers can achieve high predictive accuracy, but quantifying their uncertainty remains an unresolved challenge, hindering their deployment in consequential settings. Existing uncertainty quantification techniques,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-09-07 Anastasios Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates , Jitendra Malik , Michael I. Jordan

Predicting outcomes in sports is important for teams, leagues, bettors, media, and fans. Given the growing amount of player tracking data, sports analytics models are increasingly utilizing spatially-derived features built upon player…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-29 Peter Xenopoulos , Claudio Silva

Undirected graphs are often used to describe high dimensional distributions. Under sparsity conditions, the graph can be estimated using $\ell_1$ penalization methods. However, current methods assume that the data are independent and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2008-04-29 Shuheng Zhou , John Lafferty , Larry Wasserman

To evaluate a classification algorithm, it is common practice to plot the ROC curve using test data. However, the inherent randomness in the test data can undermine our confidence in the conclusions drawn from the ROC curve, necessitating…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-22 Zheshi Zheng , Bo Yang , Peter Song

Graph Neural Networks have achieved remarkable accuracy in semi-supervised node classification tasks. However, these results lack reliable uncertainty estimates. Conformal prediction methods provide a theoretical guarantee for node…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Jianqing Song , Jianguo Huang , Wenyu Jiang , Baoming Zhang , Shuangjie Li , Chongjun Wang

Conformal Prediction offers a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models, enabling the construction of prediction sets with finite-sample validity guarantees. While easily adaptable to non-probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-27 Eshant English , Christoph Lippert

In this work, we present a probabilistic model for directed graphs where nodes have attributes and labels. This model serves as a generative classifier capable of predicting the labels of unseen nodes using either maximum likelihood or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-06 Diego Huerta , Gerardo Arizmendi

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting by exploiting observations at correlated sequences. Relational deep learning methods leveraging graph representations are among the most effective tools for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Andrea Cini , Alexander Jenkins , Danilo Mandic , Cesare Alippi , Filippo Maria Bianchi

In many real applications that use and analyze networked data, the links in the network graph may be erroneous, or derived from probabilistic techniques. In such cases, the node classification problem can be challenging, since the…

Databases · Computer Science 2014-05-23 Michele Dallachiesa , Charu Aggarwal , Themis Palpanas

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free approach to uncertainty quantification with finite-sample guarantees. However, applying CP to graph neural networks (GNNs) remains challenging as the combinatorial nature of graphs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Peyman Baghershahi , Fangxin Wang , Debmalya Mandal , Sourav Medya

Numerous studies have focused on learning and understanding the dynamics of physical systems from video data, such as spatial intelligence. Artificial intelligence requires quantitative assessments of the uncertainty of the model to ensure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Aoming Liang , Qi Liu , Lei Xu , Fahad Sohrab , Weicheng Cui , Changhui Song , Moncef Gabbouj

Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Nikolaos Bousias , Lars Lindemann , George Pappas

Causality has traditionally been a scientific way to generate knowledge by relating causes to effects. From an imaginery point of view, causal graphs are a helpful tool for representing and infering new causal information. In previous…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-02-07 Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán , C. Puente , A. Sobrino , J. A. Olivas

Accurate modelling and quantification of predictive uncertainty is crucial in deep learning since it allows a model to make safer decisions when the data is ambiguous and facilitates the users' understanding of the model's confidence in its…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-26 Soumyasundar Pal , Liheng Ma , Amine Natik , Yingxue Zhang , Mark Coates

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been extensively used in various real-world applications. However, the predictive uncertainty of GNNs stemming from diverse sources such as inherent randomness in data and model training errors can lead to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Fangxin Wang , Yuqing Liu , Kay Liu , Yibo Wang , Sourav Medya , Philip S. Yu

The interdependence between nodes in graphs is key to improve class predictions on nodes and utilized in approaches like Label Propagation (LP) or in Graph Neural Networks (GNN). Nonetheless, uncertainty estimation for non-independent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-28 Maximilian Stadler , Bertrand Charpentier , Simon Geisler , Daniel Zügner , Stephan Günnemann

Conformal prediction provides a pivotal and flexible technique for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets with a predefined coverage rate. Many online conformal prediction methods have been developed to address data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-25 Dongjian Hu , Junxi Wu , Shu-Tao Xia , Changliang Zou

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification. This study explores the application of conformal prediction in scenarios where covariates are missing, which introduces significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Jingsen Kong , YIming Liu , Guangren Yang