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The Nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) model, which predicts the current value of a time series based upon its previous values as well as the current and past values of multiple driving (exogenous) series, has been studied for…
Vector autoregressions (VARs) are a widely used tool for modelling multivariate time-series. It is common to assume a VAR is stationary; this can be enforced by imposing the stationarity condition which restricts the parameter space of the…
Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models have recently garnered significant attention for their innovative next-scale prediction paradigm, offering notable advantages in both inference efficiency and image quality compared to traditional…
The quantile spectrum was introduced in Li (2012; 2014) as an alternative tool for spectral analysis of time series. It has the capability of providing a richer view of time series data than that offered by the ordinary spectrum especially…
Incorporating nonlinearity is paramount to predicting the future states of a dynamical system, its response to shocks, and its underlying causal network. However, most existing methods for causality detection and impulse response, such as…
Graphs are an intuitive way to represent relationships between variables in fields such as finance and neuroscience. However, these graphs often need to be inferred from data. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to infer a latent…
Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) models capture lead-lag temporal dynamics of multivariate time series data. They have been widely used in macroeconomics, financial econometrics, neuroscience and functional genomics. In many applications, the…
Vector autoregression (VAR) is a fundamental tool for modeling multivariate time series. However, as the number of component series is increased, the VAR model becomes overparameterized. Several authors have addressed this issue by…
Many financial time series have varying structures at different quantile levels, and also exhibit the phenomenon of conditional heteroscedasticity at the same time. In the meanwhile, it is still lack of a time series model to accommodate…
In this paper, we use variational recurrent neural network to investigate the anomaly detection problem on graph time series. The temporal correlation is modeled by the combination of recurrent neural network (RNN) and variational inference…
We reinterpret Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models as iterative refinement models to identify which design choices drive their quality-efficiency trade-off. Instead of treating VAR only as next-scale autoregression, we formalise it as a…
As a special infinite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model can capture much richer temporal patterns than the widely used finite-order VAR model. However, its practicality has long…
Quantile Regression (QR) provides a way to approximate a single conditional quantile. To have a more informative description of the conditional distribution, QR can be merged with deep learning techniques to simultaneously estimate multiple…
Many modern time series arise on networks, where each component is attached to a node and interactions follow observed edges. Classical time-varying parameter VARs (TVP-VARs) treat all series symmetrically and ignore this structure, while…
This paper studies vector quantile regression (VQR), which is a way to model the dependence of a random vector of interest with respect to a vector of explanatory variables so to capture the whole conditional distribution, and not only the…
The quantile-crossing spectrum is the spectrum of quantile-crossing processes created from a time series by the indicator function that shows whether or not the time series lies above or below a given quantile at a given time. This…
Continuous value prediction plays a crucial role in industrial-scale recommendation systems, including tasks such as predicting users' watch-time and estimating the gross merchandise value (GMV) in e-commerce transactions. However, it…
Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs), while being accurate, face significant training inefficiencies due to irregular supervision signals in dynamic graphs, which induce sparse gradient updates. We first theoretically establish that aggregating…
Predicting missing facts for temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) is a fundamental task, called temporal knowledge graph completion (TKGC). One key challenge in this task is the imbalance in data distribution, where facts are unevenly spread…
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as powerful tools for learning from graph-structured data, leveraging message passing to diffuse information and update node representations. However, most efforts have suggested that native…