Related papers: Estimating odds and log odds with guaranteed accur…
Given two populations from which independent binary observations are taken with parameters $p_1$ and $p_2$ respectively, estimators are proposed for the relative risk $p_1/p_2$, the odds ratio $p_1(1-p_2)/(p_2(1-p_1))$ and their logarithms.…
Sequential estimators are proposed for the relative risk, odds ratio, log relative risk or log odds ratio of a dichotomous attribute in two populations. The estimators take the same number of observations from each population, and guarantee…
The estimation of a probability p from repeated Bernoulli trials is considered in this paper. A sequential approach is followed, using a simple stopping rule. A closed-form expression and an upper bound are obtained for the mean absolute…
We shall show in this paper that there are experiments which are Bernoulli trials with success probability p > 0.5, and which have the curious feature that it is possible to correctly predict the outcome with probability > p.
Sequential estimation of a probability $p$ by means of inverse binomial sampling is considered. For $\mu_1,\mu_2>1$ given, the accuracy of an estimator $\hat{p}$ is measured by the confidence level $P[p/\mu_2\leq\hat{p}\leq p\mu_1]$. The…
We consider upper exponential bounds for the probability of the event that an absolute deviation of sample mean from mathematical expectation p is bigger comparing with some ordered level epsilon. These bounds include 2 coefficients {alpha,…
Maximum likelihood estimators are often of limited practical use due to the intensive computation they require. We propose a family of alternative estimators that maximize a stochastic variation of the composite likelihood function. Each of…
The question of optimally approximating an arbitrary probability measure in the Wasserstein distance by a discrete one with uniform weights is considered. Estimates are obtained for the optimal approximation distance, with an explicit rate…
Sequential estimation of the success probability $p$ in inverse binomial sampling is considered in this paper. For any estimator $\hat p$, its quality is measured by the risk associated with normalized loss functions of linear-linear or…
Say $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ are independent identically distributed Bernoulli random variables with mean $p$. This paper builds a new estimate $\hat p$ of $p$ that has the property that the relative error, $\hat p /p - 1$, of the estimate does not…
There are $n$ independent Bernoulli random variables $I_{k}$ with parameters $p_{k}$ that are observed sequentially. We consider a generalization of the Last-Success-Problem considering $w_{k}$ positive payments if the player successfully…
The problem of estimating the probability p=P(g(X<0) is considered when X represents a multivariate stochastic input of a monotone function g. First, a heuristic method to bound p is formally described, involving a specialized design of…
We establish two-sided bounds for expectations of order statistics ($k$-th maxima) of moduli of coordinates of centered log-concave random vectors with uncorrelated coordinates. Our bounds are exact up to multiplicative universal constants…
We present novel bounds for estimating discrete probability distributions under the $\ell_\infty$ norm. These are nearly optimal in various precise senses, including a kind of instance-optimality. Our data-dependent convergence guarantees…
We obtain approximation results for general positive linear operators satisfying mild conditions, when acting on discontinuous functions and absolutely continuous functions having discontinuous derivatives. The upper bounds, given in terms…
Standard variational lower bounds used to train latent variable models produce biased estimates of most quantities of interest. We introduce an unbiased estimator of the log marginal likelihood and its gradients for latent variable models…
Given a known function $f : [0, 1] \mapsto (0, 1)$ and a random but almost surely finite number of independent, Ber$(x)$-distributed random variables with unknown $x \in [0, 1]$, we construct an unbiased, $[0, 1]$-valued estimator of the…
One-sided confidence intervals are presented for the average of non-identical Bernoulli parameters. These confidence intervals are expressed as analytical functions of the total number of Bernoulli games won, the number of rounds and the…
We prove uniform estimates for the expected value of averages of order statistics of bivariate functions in terms of their largest values by a direct analysis. As an application, uniform estimates for the expected value of averages of order…
For the basic maximum likelihood estimating function of the two parameters Weibull distribution, a simple proof on its global monotonicity is given to ensure the existence and uniqueness of its solution. The boundary of the function's…