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Related papers: Conformal Prediction with Learned Features

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Conformal prediction (CP) gives distribution-free coverage for modern vision and language models, but it is often forced to make a ranking decision from a single unstable nonconformity score. Standard CP uses one realization, while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Jiapeng Zeng , Yogesh Prabhu , Zhanpeng Zeng , Michael A. Newton , Vikas Singh

Conformal prediction (CP) has attracted broad attention as a simple and flexible framework for uncertainty quantification through prediction sets. In this work, we study how to deploy CP under differential privacy (DP) in a statistically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-21 Jiamei Wu , Ce Zhang , Zhipeng Cai , Jingsen Kong , Bei Jiang , Linglong Kong , Lingchen Kong

Calibration$\unicode{x2014}$the problem of ensuring that predicted probabilities align with observed class frequencies$\unicode{x2014}$is a basic desideratum for reliable prediction with machine learning systems. Calibration error is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-02 Eugène Berta , Sacha Braun , David Holzmüller , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

Real-world data is often ambiguous; for example, human annotation produces instances with multiple conflicting class labels. Partial-label learning (PLL) aims at training a classifier in this challenging setting, where each instance is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Tobias Fuchs , Florian Kalinke

Safe deployment of deep neural networks in high-stake real-world applications requires theoretically sound uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a principled framework for uncertainty quantification of deep models in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-21 Subhankar Ghosh , Taha Belkhouja , Yan Yan , Janardhan Rao Doppa

Current instance segmentation models achieve high performance on average predictions, but lack principled uncertainty quantification: their outputs are not calibrated, and there is no guarantee that a predicted mask is close to the ground…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Kerri Lu , Dan M. Kluger , Stephen Bates , Sherrie Wang

Conformal prediction (CP) is a general framework to quantify the predictive uncertainty of machine learning models that uses a set prediction to include the true label with a valid probability. To align the uncertainty measured by CP,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Xuesong Jia , Yuanjie Shi , Ziquan Liu , Yi Xu , Yan Yan

Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees under an exchangeability assumption, but these guarantees can fail if the data distribution shifts. We analyze the use of pseudo-calibration as a tool to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Farbod Siahkali , Ashwin Verma , Vijay Gupta

Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) is a popular regression method, which unlike most Machine Learning techniques, provides estimates of uncertainty for its predictions. These uncertainty estimates however, are based on the assumption that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-29 Harris Papadopoulos

Query optimization is critical in relational databases. Recently, numerous Learned Query Optimizers (LQOs) have been proposed, demonstrating superior performance over traditional hand-crafted query optimizers after short training periods.…

Databases · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Hanwen Liu , Shashank Giridhara , Ibrahim Sabek

Conformal prediction is a framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets for previously unseen data, guaranteeing coverage of the true label with a specified probability. However, the efficiency of these prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

Modern artificial intelligence systems require calibrated uncertainty estimates that remain reliable in sequential and non-stationary environments. Online conformal prediction (OCP) addresses this challenge through adaptively updated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Bowen Wang , Matteo Zecchin , Osvaldo Simeone

Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular frequentist framework for representing uncertainty by providing prediction sets that guarantee coverage of the true label with a user-adjustable probability. In most applications, CP operates on…

We develop new conformal inference methods for obtaining validity guarantees on the output of large language models (LLMs). Prior work in conformal language modeling identifies a subset of the text that satisfies a high-probability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-01 John J. Cherian , Isaac Gibbs , Emmanuel J. Candès

We give a simple, generic conformal prediction method for sequential prediction that achieves target empirical coverage guarantees against adversarially chosen data. It is computationally lightweight -- comparable to split conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-03 Osbert Bastani , Varun Gupta , Christopher Jung , Georgy Noarov , Ramya Ramalingam , Aaron Roth

Estimating the expectation of a Bernoulli random variable based on N independent trials is a classical problem in statistics, typically addressed using Binomial Proportion Confidence Intervals (BPCI). In the control systems community, many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Rudi Coppola , Manuel Mazo

We advocate the use of conformal prediction (CP) to enhance rule-based multi-label classification (MLC). In particular, we highlight the mutual benefit of CP and rule learning: Rules have the ability to provide natural (non-)conformity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-09 Eyke Hüllermeier , Johannes Fürnkranz , Eneldo Loza Mencia

With the advancement of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, high-precision indoor positioning has become essential for Location-Based Services (LBS) in complex indoor environments. Fingerprint-based localization is popular, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Zhiyi Zhou , Hexin Peng , Hongyu Long

The Super Learner (SL) is a widely used ensemble method that combines predictions from a library of learners based on their predictive performance. Interval predictions are of considerable practical interest because they allow uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-27 Zhanli Wu , Fabrizio Leisen , Miguel-Angel Luque-Fernandez , F. Javier Rubio

Conformal predictive systems are sets of predictive distributions with theoretical out-of-sample calibration guarantees. The calibration guarantees are typically that the set of predictions contains a forecast distribution whose prediction…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-03 Sam Allen , Enrico Pescara , Johanna Ziegel