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Ensuring grid stability in the transition to renewable energy sources requires accurate power demand forecasting. This study addresses the need for precise forecasting by differentiating among industrial, commercial, and residential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-06 Asier Diaz-Iglesias , Xabier Belaunzaran , Ane M. Florez-Tapia

How can short-term energy consumption be accurately forecasted when sensor data is noisy, incomplete, and lacks contextual richness? This question guided our participation in the \textit{2025 Competition on Electric Energy Consumption…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Sarah Al-Shareeda , Gulcihan Ozdemir , Heung Seok Jeon , Khaleel Ahmad

Intermittent demand, where demand occurrences appear sporadically in time, is a common and challenging problem in forecasting. In this paper, we first make the connections between renewal processes, and a collection of current models used…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-26 Ali Caner Turkmen , Yuyang Wang , Tim Januschowski

Mid-term and long-term electric energy demand prediction is essential for the planning and operations of the smart grid system. Mainly in countries where the power system operates in a deregulated environment. Traditional forecasting models…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-12-29 Yuting Ding , Di Wu , Yi He , Xin Luo , Song Deng

Given increasing risk from climate-induced natural hazards, there is growing interest in the development of methods that can quantitatively measure resilience in power systems. This work quantifies resilience in electric power transmission…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-06-18 Molly Rose Kelly-Gorham , Paul. D. H. Hines , Ian Dobson

Contract scheduling is a widely studied framework for designing real-time systems with interruptible capabilities. Previous work has showed that a prediction on the interruption time can help improve the performance of contract-based…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-04-22 Spyros Angelopoulos , Marcin Bienkowski , Christoph Dürr , Bertrand Simon

The growing complexity of the power grid, driven by increasing share of distributed energy resources and by massive deployment of intelligent internet-connected devices, requires new modelling tools for planning and operation. Physics-based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-26 Francesco Fusco

In this paper, we propose a novel scenario forecasts approach which can be applied to a broad range of power system operations (e.g., wind, solar, load) over various forecasts horizons and prediction intervals. This approach is model-free…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-03-21 Yize Chen , Xiyu Wang , Baosen Zhang

Accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasting is essential for residential welfare, yet current methods often fall short in forecast accuracy. We observe that commonly used time series models struggle to utilize the prior correlation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-20 Linian Wang , Jianghong Liu , Huibin Zhang , Leye Wang

The energy transition is well underway in most European countries. It has a growing impact on electric power systems as it dramatically modifies the way electricity is produced. To ensure a safe and smooth transition towards a pan-European…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-10-17 Laurent Pagnier , Philippe Jacquod

Probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) is a key component in the extended tool-chain required for efficient management of smart energy grids. Neural networks are widely considered to achieve improved prediction performances, supporting highly…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-01-12 Alessandro Brusaferri , Matteo Matteucci , Stefano Spinelli , Andrea Vitali

A novel methodology for short-term energy forecasting using an Extreme Learning Machine ($\mathtt{ELM}$) is proposed. Using six years of hourly data collected in Corsica (France) from multiple energy sources (solar, wind, hydro, thermal,…

This paper conducts research on the short-term electric load forecast method under the background of big data. It builds a new electric load forecast model based on Deep Auto-Encoder Networks (DAENs), which takes into account…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-07-23 Xin Shi

In various applications, probabilistic forecasts are required to quantify the inherent uncertainty associated with the forecast. However, numerous modern forecasting methods are still designed to create deterministic forecasts. Transforming…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-06 Kaleb Phipps , Benedikt Heidrich , Marian Turowski , Moritz Wittig , Ralf Mikut , Veit Hagenmeyer

Modern weather forecast models perform uncertainty quantification using ensemble prediction systems, which collect nonparametric statistics based on multiple perturbed simulations. To provide accurate estimation, dozens of such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-06 Peter Grönquist , Tal Ben-Nun , Nikoli Dryden , Peter Dueben , Luca Lavarini , Shigang Li , Torsten Hoefler

Extreme weather can substantially change electricity consumption behavior, causing load curves to exhibit sharp spikes and pronounced volatility. If forecasts are inaccurate during those periods, power systems are more likely to face supply…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Chenxi Hu , Yue Ma , Yifan Wu , Yunhe Hou

Accurate intraday forecasts are essential for power system operations, complementing day-ahead forecasts that gradually lose relevance as new information becomes available. This paper introduces a Bayesian updating mechanism that converts…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-17 Kutay Bölat , Peter Palensky , Simon Tindemans

Electricity demand forecasting is a well established research field. Usually this task is performed considering historical loads, weather forecasts, calendar information and known major events. Recently attention has been given on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-14 Yun Bai , Simon Camal , Andrea Michiorri

In low-income settings, the most critical piece of information for electric utilities is the anticipated consumption of a customer. Electricity consumption assessment is difficult to do in settings where a significant fraction of households…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-12-17 Simone Fobi , Joel Mugyenyi , Nathaniel J. Williams , Vijay Modi , Jay Taneja

We focus on day-ahead electricity load forecasting of substations of the distribution network in France; therefore, our problem lies between the instability of a single consumption and the stability of a countrywide total demand. Moreover,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-17 Guillaume Lambert , Bachir Hamrouche , Joseph de Vilmarest