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While distribution networks (DNs) turn from consumers to active and responsive intelligent DNs, the question of how to represent them in large-scale transmission network (TN) studies is still under investigation. The standard approach that…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-07-11 Johanna Vorwerk , Thierry Zufferey , Petros Aristidou , Gabriela Hug

Integration of renewable energy sources and emerging loads like electric vehicles to smart grids brings more uncertainty to the distribution system management. Demand Side Management (DSM) is one of the approaches to reduce the uncertainty.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-28 Elahe Khoshbakhti Vaygan , Roozbeh Rajabi , Abouzar Estebsari

Transmission system operators have a growing need for more accurate forecasting of electricity demand. Current electricity systems largely require demand forecasting so that the electricity market establishes electricity prices as well as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-02 Oscar Trull , J. Carlos García-Díaz , Angel Peiró-Signes

The increasing penetration of variable renewable energy and flexible demand technologies, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, introduces significant uncertainty in power systems, resulting in greater imbalance; defined as the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-08 Timothée Hornek , Sergio Potenciano Menci , Ivan Pavić

Forecasting electricity prices is a challenging task and an active area of research since the 1990s and the deregulation of the traditionally monopolistic and government-controlled power sectors. Although it aims at predicting both spot and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-23 Katarzyna Maciejowska , Bartosz Uniejewski , Rafał Weron

Linearized models of power systems are often desirable to formulate tractable control and optimization problems that still reflect real-world physics adequately under various operating conditions. In this paper, we propose an approach that…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-05-28 Marc Hohmann , Joseph Warrington , John Lygeros

In this article, a multiple split method is proposed that enables construction of multidimensional probabilistic forecasts of a selected set of variables. The method uses repeated resampling to estimate uncertainty of simultaneous…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-11 Katarzyna Maciejowska , Weronika Nitka

Microgrids and, in general, active distribution networks require ultra-short-term prediction, i.e., for sub-second time scales, for specific control decisions. Conventional forecasting methodologies are not effective at such time scales. To…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-09-20 Plouton Grammatikos , Fabrizio Sossan , Jean-Yves Le Boudec , Mario Paolone

Power systems face increasing challenges in maintaining resource adequacy due to lower operating margins, rising renewable energy uncertainty, and demand variability. Forecasting the probability distribution of peak demand on shorter…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-28 Buyi Yu , Wenyuan Tang

Simultaneous load forecasting across multiple entities (e.g., regions, buildings) is crucial for the efficient, reliable, and cost-effective operation of power systems. Accurate load forecasting is a challenging problem due to the inherent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Onintze Zaballa , Verónica Álvarez , Santiago Mazuelas

Renewable energy is essential for energy security and global warming mitigation. However, power generation from renewable energy sources is uncertain due to volatile weather conditions and complex equipment operations. To improve…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-09 Yuchen Shi , Nan Chen

Energy forecasting has a vital role to play in smart grid (SG) systems involving various applications such as demand-side management, load shedding, and optimum dispatch. Managing efficient forecasting while ensuring the least possible…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-25 Devinder Kaur , Shama Naz Islam , Md. Apel Mahmud , Md. Enamul Haque , ZhaoYang Dong

Electricity price forecasting is an essential task in all the deregulated markets of the world. The accurate prediction of the day-ahead electricity prices is an active research field and available data from various markets can be used as…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-18 Salih Gunduz , Umut Ugurlu , Ilkay Oksuz

This paper proposes a nonparametric multivariate density forecast model based on deep learning. It not only offers the whole marginal distribution of each random variable in forecasting targets, but also reveals the future correlation…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-28 Zichao Meng , Ye Guo , Wenjun Tang , Hongbin Sun

The energy market relies on forecasting capabilities of both demand and power generation that need to be kept in dynamic balance. Today, when it comes to renewable energy generation, such decisions are increasingly made in a liberalized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-15 Odin Foldvik Eikeland , Finn Dag Hovem , Tom Eirik Olsen , Matteo Chiesa , Filippo Maria Bianchi

Precise probabilistic forecasts are fundamental for energy risk management, and there is a wide range of both statistical and machine learning models for this purpose. Inherent to these probabilistic models is some form of uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Andreas Lebedev , Abhinav Das , Sven Pappert , Stephan Schlüter

Quantiles are very important statistics information used to describe the distribution of datasets. Given the quantiles of a dataset, we can easily know the distribution of the dataset, which is a fundamental problem in data analysis.…

Databases · Computer Science 2015-08-25 Zixuan Zhuang

Accurate demand forecasting is vital for ensuring reliable access to contraceptive products, supporting key processes like procurement, inventory, and distribution. However, forecasting contraceptive demand in developing countries presents…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Harsha Chamara Hewage , Bahman Rostami-Tabar , Aris Syntetos , Federico Liberatore , Glenn Milano

Power demand forecasting is a critical task for achieving efficiency and reliability in power grid operation. Accurate forecasting allows grid operators to better maintain the balance of supply and demand as well as to optimize operational…

Other Computer Science · Computer Science 2019-04-30 Yao Cheng , Chang Xu , Daisuke Mashima , Vrizlynn L. L. Thing , Yongdong Wu

In recent years, increasingly unpredictable and severe global weather patterns have frequently caused long-lasting power outages. Building resilience, the ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from major disruptions, has become…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-27 Hanyang Jiang , Yao Xie , Feng Qiu