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Bayesian inference involves two main computational challenges. First, in estimating the parameters of some model for the data, the posterior distribution may well be highly multi-modal: a regime in which the convergence to stationarity of…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2019-12-10 F. Feroz , M. P. Hobson , E. Cameron , A. N. Pettitt

We present further development and the first public release of our multimodal nested sampling algorithm, called MultiNest. This Bayesian inference tool calculates the evidence, with an associated error estimate, and produces posterior…

Astrophysics · Physics 2011-09-28 F. Feroz , M. P. Hobson , M. Bridges

In performing a Bayesian analysis, two difficult problems often emerge. First, in estimating the parameters of some model for the data, the resulting posterior distribution may be multi-modal or exhibit pronounced (curving) degeneracies.…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2013-12-20 F. Feroz , J. Skilling

Statistical inference of the fundamental parameters of supersymmetric theories is a challenging and active endeavor. Several sophisticated algorithms have been employed to this end. While Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2015-03-17 F. Feroz , K. Cranmer , M. Hobson , R. Ruiz de Austri , R. Trotta

Bayesian inference with nested sampling requires a likelihood-restricted prior sampling method, which draws samples from the prior distribution that exceed a likelihood threshold. For high-dimensional problems, Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2023-02-13 Johannes Buchner

Nested sampling is an increasingly popular technique for Bayesian computation, in particular for multimodal, degenerate problems of moderate to high dimensionality. Without appropriate settings, however, nested sampling software may fail to…

Computation · Statistics 2019-01-23 Edward Higson , Will Handley , Mike Hobson , Anthony Lasenby

Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-17 Xiaohao Cai , Jason D. McEwen , Marcelo Pereyra

Nested sampling is an important tool for conducting Bayesian analysis in Astronomy and other fields, both for sampling complicated posterior distributions for parameter inference, and for computing marginal likelihoods for model comparison.…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2021-06-30 Justin Alsing , Will Handley

We present dynesty, a public, open-source, Python package to estimate Bayesian posteriors and evidences (marginal likelihoods) using Dynamic Nested Sampling. By adaptively allocating samples based on posterior structure, Dynamic Nested…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-02-12 Joshua S Speagle

We introduce a novel technique within the Nested Sampling framework to enhance efficiency of the computation of Bayesian evidence, a critical component in scientific data analysis. In higher dimensions, Nested Sampling relies on Markov…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-12-19 Joshua G. Albert

Nested sampling is a powerful approach to Bayesian inference ultimately limited by the computationally demanding task of sampling from a heavily constrained probability distribution. An effective algorithm in its own right, Hamiltonian…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-03-02 M. J. Betancourt

Quality by design in pharmaceutical manufacturing hinges on computational methods and tools that are capable of accurate quantitative prediction of the design space. This paper investigates Bayesian approaches to design space…

The data torrent unleashed by current and upcoming astronomical surveys demands scalable analysis methods. Many machine learning approaches scale well, but separating the instrument measurement from the physical effects of interest, dealing…

Computation · Statistics 2023-04-19 Johannes Buchner

Nested sampling (NS) computes parameter posterior distributions and makes Bayesian model comparison computationally feasible. Its strengths are the unsupervised navigation of complex, potentially multi-modal posteriors until a well-defined…

Computation · Statistics 2023-07-11 Johannes Buchner

In arXiv:0911.2150, Rutger van Haasteren seeks to criticize the nested sampling algorithm for Bayesian data analysis in general and its MultiNest implementation in particular. He introduces a new method for evidence evaluation based on the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2010-01-11 F. Feroz , M. P. Hobson , R. Trotta

Nested Sampling is a method for computing the Bayesian evidence, also called the marginal likelihood, which is the integral of the likelihood with respect to the prior. More generally, it is a numerical probabilistic quadrature rule. The…

Computation · Statistics 2023-10-09 Jonas Latz , Doris Schneider , Philipp Wacker

We describe an application of the MultiNest algorithm to gravitational wave data analysis. MultiNest is a multimodal nested sampling algorithm designed to efficiently evaluate the Bayesian evidence and return posterior probability densities…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2014-11-18 Farhan Feroz , Jonathan R. Gair , Michael P. Hobson , Edward K. Porter

Many inference problems involve inferring the number $N$ of components in some region, along with their properties $\{\mathbf{x}_i\}_{i=1}^N$, from a dataset $\mathcal{D}$. A common statistical example is finite mixture modelling. In the…

Computation · Statistics 2015-01-15 Brendon J. Brewer

Bayesian inference methods rely on numerical algorithms for both model selection and parameter inference. In general, these algorithms require a high computational effort to yield reliable estimates. One of the major challenges in…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2018-08-09 Patricio Maturana , Brendon J. Brewer , Steffen Klaere , Remco Bouckaert

Nested sampling is a simulation method for approximating marginal likelihoods proposed by Skilling (2006). We establish that nested sampling has an approximation error that vanishes at the standard Monte Carlo rate and that this error is…

Computation · Statistics 2010-10-11 Nicolas Chopin , Christian Robert
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