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To make accurate predictions, understand mechanisms, and design interventions in systems of many variables, we wish to learn causal graphs from large scale data. Unfortunately the space of all possible causal graphs is enormous so scalably…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-19 Alan Nawzad Amin , Andrew Gordon Wilson

In this work, we propose a novel generative method to identify the causal impact and apply it to prediction tasks. We conduct causal impact analysis using interventional and counterfactual perspectives. First, applying interventions, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Soma Bandyopadhyay , Sudeshna Sarkar

Causal effect estimation seeks to determine the impact of an intervention from observational data. However, the existing causal inference literature primarily addresses treatment effects on frequently occurring events. But what if we are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-18 Jiyuan Tan , Jose Blanchet , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Despite advances in deep probabilistic models, learning discrete latent representations remains challenging. This work introduces a novel method to improve inference in discrete Variational Autoencoders by reframing the inference problem…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-11 María Martínez-García , Grace Villacrés , David Mitchell , Pablo M. Olmos

A further understanding of cause and effect within observational data is critical across many domains, such as economics, health care, public policy, web mining, online advertising, and marketing campaigns. Although significant advances…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Zhixuan Chu , Sheng Li

Disentangling complex causal relationships is important for accurate detection of anomalies. In multivariate time series analysis, dynamic interactions among data variables over time complicate the interpretation of causal relationships.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Wonah Kim , Jeonghyeon Park , Dongsan Jun , Jungkyu Han , Sejin Chun

Understanding causal relationships among features is fundamental for explaining machine learning model decisions. However, traditional causal discovery methods face challenges with categorical variables due to numerical instability in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Henry Salgado , Meagan R. Kendall , Martine Ceberio

Instrumental variable approaches have gained popularity for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However, the availability of instrumental variables in the primary dataset is often challenged due to stringent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Kang Shuai , Shanshan Luo , Wei Li , Yangbo He

Estimating causal effects from high-dimensional, structured exposures is a fundamental challenge in modern applications ranging from neuroscience and finance to environmental science. While the literature has addressed high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-29 Samhita Pal , Dhrubajyoti Ghosh

We consider the problem of causal discovery (structure learning) from heterogeneous observational data. Most existing methods assume a homogeneous sampling scheme, which leads to misleading conclusions when violated in many applications. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-01 Fangting Zhou , Kejun He , Yang Ni

Causal induction, i.e., identifying unobservable mechanisms that lead to the observable relations among variables, has played a pivotal role in modern scientific discovery, especially in scenarios with only sparse and limited data. Humans,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-03-29 Chi Zhang , Baoxiong Jia , Mark Edmonds , Song-Chun Zhu , Yixin Zhu

Climate models, such as Earth system models (ESMs), are crucial for simulating future climate change based on projected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. While ESMs are sophisticated and invaluable,…

Causal discovery serves a pivotal role in mitigating model uncertainty through recovering the underlying causal mechanisms among variables. In many practical domains, such as healthcare, access to the data gathered by individual entities is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-13 Amin Abyaneh , Nino Scherrer , Patrick Schwab , Stefan Bauer , Bernhard Schölkopf , Arash Mehrjou

Causal discovery from observational data is a challenging task that can only be solved up to a set of equivalent solutions, called an equivalence class. Such classes, which are often large in size, encode uncertainties about the orientation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-01 Philippe Brouillard , Perouz Taslakian , Alexandre Lacoste , Sebastien Lachapelle , Alexandre Drouin

Causal representation learning promises to extend causal models to hidden causal variables from raw entangled measurements. However, most progress has focused on proving identifiability results in different settings, and we are not aware of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Dingling Yao , Caroline Muller , Francesco Locatello

Discovering causal structures with latent variables from observational data is a fundamental challenge in causal discovery. Existing methods often rely on constraint-based, iterative discrete searches, limiting their scalability to large…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Parjanya Prashant , Ignavier Ng , Kun Zhang , Biwei Huang

Exploring causal relationships in stochastic time series is a challenging yet crucial task with a vast range of applications, including finance, economics, neuroscience, and climate science. Many algorithms for Causal Discovery (CD) have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Matteo Tusoni , Giuseppe Masi , Andrea Coletta , Aldo Glielmo , Viviana Arrigoni , Novella Bartolini

The discovery of causal relationships between random variables is an important yet challenging problem that has applications across many scientific domains. Differentiable causal discovery (DCD) methods are effective in uncovering causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Shiv Kampani , David Hidary , Constantijn van der Poel , Martin Ganahl , Brenda Miao

The reasoning frontier of Large Language Models (LLMs) has advanced significantly through modern post-training paradigms (e.g., Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR)). However, the efficacy of these methods remains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Liqin Ye , Yanbin Yin , Michael Galarnyk , Yuzhao Heng , Sudheer Chava , Chao Zhang

We study causal discovery from a single observed sequence of discrete events generated by a stochastic process, as encountered in vehicle logs, manufacturing systems, or patient trajectories. This regime is particularly challenging due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Hugo Math , Rainer Lienhart
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