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While Evidence Theory (also known as Dempster-Shafer Theory, or Belief Functions Theory) is being increasingly used in data fusion, its potentialities in the Social and Life Sciences are often obscured by lack of awareness of its…
The explosive growth in fake news and its erosion to democracy, justice, and public trust has increased the demand for fake news detection and intervention. This survey reviews and evaluates methods that can detect fake news from four…
Testing hypotheses is an issue of primary importance in the scientific research, as well as in many other human activities. Much clarification about it can be achieved if the process of learning from data is framed in a stochastic model of…
In this paper we study two classes of imprecise previsions, which we termed convex and centered convex previsions, in the framework of Walley's theory of imprecise previsions. We show that convex previsions are related with a concept of…
Probability measures by themselves, are known to be inappropriate for modeling the dynamics of plain belief and their excessively strong measurability constraints make them unsuitable for some representational tasks, e.g. in the context of…
Uncertainty may be taken to characterize inferences, their conclusions, their premises or all three. Under some treatments of uncertainty, the inferences itself is never characterized by uncertainty. We explore both the significance of…
The statement "The earth is flat" is factually inaccurate, but if someone truly believes and argues in its favor, it is not deceptive. Research on deception detection and fact checking often conflates factual accuracy with the truthfulness…
It is often said that the fundamental problem of causal inference is a missing data problem -- the comparison of responses to two hypothetical treatment assignments is made difficult because for every experimental unit only one potential…
Successful predictions are among the most compelling validations of any model. Extracting falsifiable predictions from nonlinear multiparameter models is complicated by the fact that such models are commonly sloppy, possessing sensitivities…
Mechanistic approaches to deception in large language models (LLMs) often rely on "lie detectors", that is, truth probes trained to identify internal representations of model outputs as false. The lie detector approach to LLM deception…
Functions that are piecewise defined are a common sight in mathematics while convexity is a property especially desired in optimization. Suppose now a piecewise-defined function is convex on each of its defining components - when can we…
This paper develops inferential methods for a very general class of ill-posed models in econometrics encompassing the nonparametric instrumental variable regression, various functional regressions, and the density deconvolution. We focus on…
The possibility of unmeasured confounding is one of the main limitations for causal inference from observational studies. There are different methods for (partially) empirically assessing the plausibility of unconfoundedness. However, most…
The convex feasibility problem (CFP) is to find a feasible point in the intersection of finitely many convex and closed sets. If the intersection is empty then the CFP is inconsistent and a feasible point does not exist. However,…
The compatibility of quantitative and qualitative representations of beliefs was studied extensively in probability theory. It is only recently that this important topic is considered in the context of belief functions. In this paper, the…
In this paper we prove the probabilistic continuous complexity conjecture. In continuous complexity theory, this states that the complexity of solving a continuous problem with probability approaching 1 converges (in this limit) to the…
We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former…
Traditionally regression analysis answers questions about the relationships among variables based on the assumption that the observation values of variables are precise numbers. It has long been dominated by least squares techniques, mostly…
We derive computationally tractable formulations of the robust counterparts of convex quadratic and conic quadratic constraints that are concave in matrix-valued uncertain parameters. We do this for a broad range of uncertainty sets. In…
We consider a generalized method of moments framework in which a part of the data vector is missing for some units in a completely unrestricted, potentially endogenous way. In this setup, the parameters of interest are usually only…