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Related papers: Uncertainty Estimation and Quantification for LLMs…

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Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for Large Language Models (LLMs) encompass a variety of approaches, with two major types being particularly prominent: information-based, which focus on model confidence expressed as token…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Roman Vashurin , Maiya Goloburda , Albina Ilina , Aleksandr Rubashevskii , Preslav Nakov , Artem Shelmanov , Maxim Panov

Hallucinations are a persistent problem with Large Language Models (LLMs). As these models become increasingly used in high-stakes domains, such as healthcare and finance, the need for effective hallucination detection is crucial. To this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-29 Dylan Bouchard , Mohit Singh Chauhan

As a main field of artificial intelligence, natural language processing (NLP) has achieved remarkable success via deep neural networks. Plenty of NLP tasks have been addressed in a unified manner, with various tasks being associated with…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-06-08 Mengting Hu , Zhen Zhang , Shiwan Zhao , Minlie Huang , Bingzhe Wu

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

Uncertainty quantification has emerged as an effective approach to closed-book hallucination detection for LLMs, but existing methods are largely designed for short-form outputs and do not generalize well to long-form generation. We…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Dylan Bouchard , Mohit Singh Chauhan , Viren Bajaj , David Skarbrevik

Step-by-step decision planning with large language models (LLMs) is gaining attention in AI agent development. This paper focuses on decision planning with uncertainty estimation to address the hallucination problem in language models.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-02 Yao-Hung Hubert Tsai , Walter Talbott , Jian Zhang

Quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is important for safety-critical applications because it helps spot incorrect answers, known as hallucinations. One major trend of uncertainty quantification methods is based on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Lucie Kunitomo-Jacquin , Edison Marrese-Taylor , Ken Fukuda

Technological and computational advances continuously drive forward the broad field of deep learning. In recent years, the derivation of quantities describing theuncertainty in the prediction - which naturally accompanies the modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-31 Christoph Koller , Göran Kauermann , Xiao Xiang Zhu

Pre-trained language models (PLMs) have gained increasing popularity due to their compelling prediction performance in diverse natural language processing (NLP) tasks. When formulating a PLM-based prediction pipeline for NLP tasks, it is…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-17 Yuxin Xiao , Paul Pu Liang , Umang Bhatt , Willie Neiswanger , Ruslan Salakhutdinov , Louis-Philippe Morency

Uncertainty in machine learning refers to the degree of confidence or lack thereof in a model's predictions. While uncertainty quantification methods exist, explanations of uncertainty, especially in high-dimensional settings, remain an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Isaac Roberts , Alexander Schulz , Sarah Schroeder , Fabian Hinder , Barbara Hammer

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for factual question-answering, it becomes more important for LLMs to have the capability to communicate the likelihood that their answer is correct. For these verbalized expressions of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-15 Sophia Hager , David Mueller , Kevin Duh , Nicholas Andrews

Empowering large language models to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on white-box access to internal model information…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Miao Xiong , Zhiyuan Hu , Xinyang Lu , Yifei Li , Jie Fu , Junxian He , Bryan Hooi

As LLM-as-a-Judge emerges as a new paradigm for assessing large language models (LLMs), concerns have been raised regarding the alignment, bias, and stability of LLM evaluators. While substantial work has focused on alignment and bias,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Qiujie Xie , Qingqiu Li , Zhuohao Yu , Yuejie Zhang , Yue Zhang , Linyi Yang

Modern Large Language Models (LLMs) often require external tools, such as machine learning classifiers or knowledge retrieval systems, to provide accurate answers in domains where their pre-trained knowledge is insufficient. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Panagiotis Lymperopoulos , Vasanth Sarathy

Uncertainty quantification is essential for scientific analysis, as it allows for the evaluation and interpretation of variability and reliability in complex systems and datasets. In their original form, multivariate statistical regression…

There has been much recent interest in evaluating large language models for uncertainty calibration to facilitate model control and modulate user trust. Inference time uncertainty, which may provide a real-time signal to the model or…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Kyle Moore , Jesse Roberts , Daryl Watson

Uncertainty estimation is a significant issue for current large language models (LLMs) that are generally poorly calibrated and over-confident, especially with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). Unlike humans, whose…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-13 Ruixin Yang , Dheeraj Rajagopal , Shirley Anugrah Hayati , Bin Hu , Dongyeop Kang

Recent works have shown that deep neural networks can achieve super-human performance in a wide range of image classification tasks in the medical imaging domain. However, these works have primarily focused on classification accuracy,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-09-10 Gongbo Liang , Yu Zhang , Xiaoqin Wang , Nathan Jacobs

Probing techniques have shown promise in revealing how LLMs encode human-interpretable concepts, particularly when applied to curated datasets. However, the factors governing a dataset's suitability for effective probe training are not…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Yongjie Wang , Yibo Wang , Xin Zhou , Zhiqi Shen

The correct use and interpretation of models depends on several steps, two of which being the calibration by parameter estimation and the analysis of uncertainty. In the biological literature, these steps are seldom discussed together, but…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2015-08-17 André Chalom , Paulo Inácio de Knegt López de Prado
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