Related papers: Mapping Incidence and Prevalence Peak Data for SIR…
In this work, we aim to formalize a novel scientific machine learning framework to reconstruct the hidden dynamics of the transmission rate, whose inaccurate extrapolation can significantly impair the quality of the epidemic forecasts, by…
The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges mankind face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current…
This paper seeks to study the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic based on daily published data from Worldometer website, using a time-dependent SIR model. Our findings indicate that this model fits well such data, for different chosen…
We introduce a new method to efficiently approximate the number of infections resulting from a given initially-infected node in a network of susceptible individuals. Our approach is based on counting the number of possible infection walks…
We introduce a modified SIR model with memory for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a constant population of individuals. Each individual is in one of the states susceptible (${\bf S}$), infected (${\bf I}$) or recovered (${\bf R}$). In…
Mathematical models are often regarded as recent innovations in the description and analysis of infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics, but simple models have been in use for projection of epidemic trajectories for more than a century.…
We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…
We introduce a numerical method to solve epidemic models on the underlying topology of complex networks. The approach exploits the mean-field like rate equations describing the system and allows to work with very large system sizes, where…
In this study, we present an integro-differential model to simulate the local spread of infections. The model incorporates a standard susceptible-infected-recovered (\textit{SIR}-) model enhanced by an integral kernel, allowing for…
The ever-changing world of disease study heavily relies on mathematical models. They are key in finding and controlling infectious diseases. We aim to explore these mathematical tools used for studying disease spread in biology. The SEIR…
We have derived the governing equations for an SIR model with delay terms in both the infectivity and recovery of the disease. The equations are derived by modelling the dynamics as a continuous time random walk, where individuals move…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…
Infectious diseases spread through human networks. Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model is one of the epidemic models to describe infection dynamics on a complex network connecting individuals. In the metapopulation SIR model, each node…
Acute respiratory infections (ARI) are a major cause of pediatric hospitalization in Chile, producing marked winter increases in demand that challenge hospital planning. This study presents an alert-based forecasting model to predict the…
In contrast to the common assumption in epidemic models that the rate of infection between individuals is constant, in reality, an individual's viral load determines their infectiousness. We compare the average and individual reproductive…
Epidemics are a serious public health threat, and the resources for mitigating their effects are typically limited. Decision-makers face challenges in forecasting the supply and demand for these resources as prior information about the…
Epidemiological models are best suitable to model an epidemic if the spread pattern is stationary. To deal with non-stationary patterns and multiple waves of an epidemic, we develop a hybrid model encompassing epidemic modeling, particle…
We analyse the infection-age-dependent SIR model from a numerical point of view. First, we present an algorithm for calculating the solution the infection-age-structured SIR model without demography of the background host. Second, we…
This study investigates the influence of different types of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on epidemic progression using SIR compartmental models. We analyze the optimization of two distinct targets: the final epidemic size and the…
We revisit the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model and one of its nonlocal variations recently developed in \cite{Guan}. We introduce several new approaches to derive exact analytical solutions in the classical…