Related papers: Hoeffding's inequality for continuous-time Markov …
In order to approximate a continuous time stochastic process by discrete time Markov chains one has several options to embed the Markov chains into continuous time processes. On the one hand there is the Markov embedding, which uses…
We study the limit behaviour of a generally non-linear ordinary differential equation whose solution is a superadditive generalisation of a stochastic matrix, and provide necessary and sufficient conditions for this solution to be ergodic,…
We establish a new Bernstein-type deviation inequality for general (non-reversible) discrete-time Markov chains via an elementary approach. More robust than existing works in the literature, our result only requires the Markov chain to…
Given an irreducible discrete-time Markov chain on a finite state space, we consider the largest expected hitting time $T(\alpha)$ of a set of stationary measure at least $\alpha$ for $\alpha\in(0,1)$. We obtain tight inequalities among the…
Filtering---estimating the state of a partially observable Markov process from a sequence of observations---is one of the most widely studied problems in control theory, AI, and computational statistics. Exact computation of the posterior…
The ultimate limits of quantum state discrimination are often thought to be captured by asymptotic bounds that restrict the achievable error probabilities, notably the quantum Chernoff and Hoeffding bounds. Here we study hypothesis testing…
We establish quantitative bounds for rates of convergence and asymptotic variances for iterated conditional sequential Monte Carlo (i-cSMC) Markov chains and associated particle Gibbs samplers. Our main findings are that the essential…
Markov chains are the de facto finite-state model for stochastic dynamical systems, and Markov decision processes (MDPs) extend Markov chains by incorporating non-deterministic behaviors. Given an MDP and rewards on states, a classical…
We propose a sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) algorithm to sample from a sequence of probability distributions, corresponding to posterior distributions at different times in on-line applications. SMCMC proceeds as in usual MCMC…
In this paper, we consider a class of nonautonomous multi-scale stochastic partial differential equations with fully local monotone coefficients. By introducing the evolution system of measures for time-inhomogeneous Markov semigroups, we…
We study a stochastic particle system which is motivated from grain boundary coarsening in two-dimensional networks. Each particles lives on the positive real line and is labeled as belonging to either Species 1 or Species 2. Species 1…
We investigate the use of a certain class of functional inequalities known as weak Poincar\'e inequalities to bound convergence of Markov chains to equilibrium. We show that this enables the straightforward and transparent derivation of…
In this paper we present the concept of description of random processes in complex systems with the discrete time. It involves the description of kinetics of discrete processes by means of the chain of finite-difference non-Markov equations…
The present paper focuses on the problem of sampling from a given target distribution $\pi$ defined on some general state space. To this end, we introduce a novel class of non-reversible Markov chains, each chain being defined on an…
In this work, we characterise the statistics of Markov chains by constructing an associated sequence of periodic differential operators. Studying the density of states of these operators reveals the absolutely continuous invariant measure…
Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the…
We build optimal exponential bounds for the probabilities of large deviations of sums \sum_{k=1}^nf(X_k) where (X_k) is a finite reversible Markov chain and f is an arbitrary bounded function. These bounds depend only on the stationary mean…
Markov jump processes (MJPs) are continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in a variety of applied disciplines. Inference for MJPs typically proceeds via Markov chain Monte Carlo, the state-of-the-art being a uniformization-based…
We review criteria for comparing the efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods with respect to the asymptotic variance of estimates of expectations of functions of state, and show how such criteria can justify ways of combining…
Random walks are a fundamental model in applied mathematics and are a common example of a Markov chain. The limiting stationary distribution of the Markov chain represents the fraction of the time spent in each state during the stochastic…