Related papers: Stochastic Volatility in Mean: Efficient Analysis …

Deriving Bayesian inference for exponential random graph models (ERGMs) is a challenging "doubly intractable" problem as the normalizing constants of the likelihood and posterior density are both intractable. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Stochastic variational inference algorithms are derived for fitting various heteroskedastic time series models. We examine Gaussian, t, and skew-t response GARCH models and fit these using Gaussian variational approximating densities. We…

We analyse a Monte Carlo particle method for the simulation of the calibrated Heston-type local stochastic volatility (H-LSV) model. The common application of a kernel estimator for a conditional expectation in the calibration condition…

We study the consistency of sample mean-variance portfolios of arbitrarily high dimension that are based on Bayesian or shrinkage estimation of the input parameters as well as weighted sampling. In an asymptotic setting where the number of…

We introduce stochastic normalizing flows, an extension of continuous normalizing flows for maximum likelihood estimation and variational inference (VI) using stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Using the theory of rough paths, the…

In the last decade, sequential Monte-Carlo methods (SMC) emerged as a key tool in computational statistics. These algorithms approximate a sequence of distributions by a sequence of weighted empirical measures associated to a weighted…

We present a sequential Monte Carlo sampler algorithm for the Bayesian analysis of generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs). These models support a variety of interesting regression-type analyses, but performing inference is often extremely…

This paper proposes a family of weighted batch means variance estimators, which are computationally efficient and can be conveniently applied in practice. The focus is on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations and estimation of the asymptotic…

Bayesian inference via standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is too computationally intensive to handle large datasets, since the cost per step usually scales like $\Theta(n)$ in the number of data points $n$. We propose the…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a methodology for sampling approximately from a sequence of probability distributions of increasing dimension and estimating their normalizing constants. We propose here an alternative methodology named…

Fitting stochastic kinetic models represented by Markov jump processes within the Bayesian paradigm is complicated by the intractability of the observed data likelihood. There has therefore been considerable attention given to the design of…

Being the most classical generative model for serial data, state-space models (SSM) are fundamental in AI and statistical machine learning. In SSM, any form of parameter learning or latent state inference typically involves the computation…

We study the parameter estimation for parabolic, linear, second-order, stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) observing a mild solution on a discrete grid in time and space. A high-frequency regime is considered where the mesh of…

This article introduces a dynamic spatiotemporal stochastic volatility (SV) model with explicit terms for the spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal spillover effects. Moreover, the model includes time-invariant site-specific constant…

The use of factor stochastic volatility models requires choosing the number of latent factors used to describe the dynamics of the financial returns process; however, empirical evidence suggests that the number and makeup of pertinent…

This paper proposes a Sieve Simulated Method of Moments (Sieve-SMM) estimator for the parameters and the distribution of the shocks in nonlinear dynamic models where the likelihood and the moments are not tractable. An important concern…

Nested sampling is a simulation method for approximating marginal likelihoods proposed by Skilling (2006). We establish that nested sampling has an approximation error that vanishes at the standard Monte Carlo rate and that this error is…

The stochastic block model (SBM) is a mixture model used for the clustering of nodes in networks. It has now been employed for more than a decade to analyze very different types of networks in many scientific fields such as Biology and…

Bayesian inference for stochastic volatility models using MCMC methods highly depends on actual parameter values in terms of sampling efficiency. While draws from the posterior utilizing the standard centered parameterization break down…

We propose a method to sample stationary properties of solutions of stochastic differential equations, which is accurate and efficient if there are rarely visited regions or rare transitions between distinct regions of the state space. The…