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When evaluating the performance of a model for individualised risk prediction, the sample size needs to be large enough to precisely estimate the performance measures of interest. Current sample size guidance is based on precisely…

Bayesian model-averaged meta-analysis allows quantification of evidence for both treatment effectiveness $\mu$ and across-study heterogeneity $\tau$. We use the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews to develop discipline-wide empirical…

Estimating the effective sample size (ESS) is fundamental in Bayesian phylogenetic inference to properly account for autocorrelation in MCMC samples. While methods for continuous parameters are well established, the discrete and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-03-05 Jonathan Klawitter , Lars Berling , Jordan Douglas , Dong Xie , Alexei J. Drummond

We develop a new method for frequentist multiple testing with Bayesian prior information. Our procedure finds a new set of optimal p-value weights called the Bayes weights. Prior information is relevant to many multiple testing problems.…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-03 Edgar Dobriban , Kristen Fortney , Stuart K. Kim , Art B. Owen

Bayesian analysis plays a crucial role in estimating distribution of unknown parameters for given data and model. Due to the curse of dimensionality, it becomes difficult for high-dimensional problems, especially when multiple modes exist.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-18 Zihan Liao , Binbin Li , Hua-Ping Wan

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-28 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Tatsuya Kubokawa

We propose BaySize, a sample size calculator for phase I clinical trials using Bayesian models. BaySize applies the concept of effect size in dose finding, assuming the MTD is defined based on an equivalence interval. Leveraging a decision…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-29 Xiaolei Lin , Jiaying Lyu , Shijie Yuan , Sue-Jane Wang , Yuan Ji

In the Bayesian framework power prior distributions are increasingly adopted in clinical trials and similar studies to incorporate external and past information, typically to inform the parameter associated to a treatment effect. Their use…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-12 Roberto Macrì Demartino , Leonardo Egidi , Nicola Torelli , Ioannis Ntzoufras

Clinical prediction models are estimated using a sample of limited size from the target population, leading to uncertainty in predictions, even when the model is correctly specified. Generally, not all patient profiles are observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-09 Doranne Thomassen , Saskia le Cessie , Hans van Houwelingen , Ewout Steyerberg

Approximate Bayesian inference methods provide a powerful suite of tools for finding approximations to intractable posterior distributions. However, machine learning applications typically involve selecting actions, which -- in a Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-11 Michael J. Morais , Jonathan W. Pillow

Reinforcement learning can learn amortised design policies for designing sequences of experiments. However, current amortised methods rely on estimators of expected information gain (EIG) that require an exponential number of samples on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Tom Blau , Iadine Chades , Amir Dezfouli , Daniel Steinberg , Edwin V. Bonilla

In this work, we offer a thorough analytical investigation into the role of shared hyperparameters in a hierarchical Bayesian model, examining their impact on information borrowing and posterior inference. Our approach is rooted in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Prasenjit Ghosh , Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati

The practice of employing empirical likelihood (EL) components in place of parametric likelihood functions in the construction of Bayesian-type procedures has been well-addressed in the modern statistical literature. We rigorously derive…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-21 Albert Vexler , Li Zou , Alan D. Hutson

Large sample behavior of dynamic information borrowing (DIB) estimators is investigated. Asymptotic properties of several DIB approaches (adaptive risk minimization, adaptive LASSO, Bayesian procedures with empirical power prior, fully…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-03 Sergey Tarima , Silvia Calderazzo , Mary Homan

One of the main goals of mathematical modeling in systems medicine related to medical applications is to obtain patient-specific parameterizations and model predictions. In clinical practice, however, the number of available measurements…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-22 Ilja Klebanov , Alexander Sikorski , Christof Schütte , Susanna Röblitz

Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Shirin Golchi , James Willard

Early Exiting (EE) is a promising technique for speeding up inference by adaptively allocating compute resources to data points based on their difficulty. The approach enables predictions to exit at earlier layers for simpler samples while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Mehrnaz Mofakhami , Reza Bayat , Ioannis Mitliagkas , Joao Monteiro , Valentina Zantedeschi

In this paper, a Bayesian approach is developed for simultaneously comparing multiple experimental treatments with a common control treatment in an exploratory clinical trial. The sample size is set to ensure that, at the end of the study,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-14 John Whitehead , Faye Cleary , Amanda Turner

Large-scale randomized experiments, sometimes called A/B tests, are increasingly prevalent in many industries. Though such experiments are often analyzed via frequentist $t$-tests, arguably such analyses are deficient: $p$-values are hard…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-27 F. Richard Guo , James McQueen , Thomas S. Richardson

The hybrid approach to experimental design aims to control frequentist operating characteristics of Bayesian decision procedures. These operating characteristics are assessed by simulating sampling distributions of posterior summaries under…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-04 Luke Hagar , James M. McGree