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Many critical decisions, such as personalized medical diagnoses and product pricing, are made based on insights gained from designing, observing, and analyzing a series of experiments. This highlights the crucial role of experimental…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-03 Daolang Huang , Yujia Guo , Luigi Acerbi , Samuel Kaski

Bayesian experimental design (BED) is a principled framework for data-efficient design of sequential experiments. However, existing BED methods are unable to adapt to dynamic constraints inherent in real-world tasks due to budget…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-27 Yujia Guo , Daolang Huang , Xinyu Zhang , Sammie Katt , Samuel Kaski , Ayush Bharti

In the Bayesian community, an ongoing imperative is to develop efficient algorithms. An appealing approach is to form a hybrid algorithm by combining ideas from competing existing techniques. This paper addresses issues in designing hybrid…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-11-14 Jeong Lee , Kerrie Mengersen , Christian Robert , Ross McVinish

Hybrid clinical trials, that borrow real-world data (RWD), are gaining interest, especially for rare diseases. They assume RWD and randomized control arm be exchangeable, but violations can bias results, inflate type I error, or reduce…

Information borrowing from historical data is gaining attention in clinical trials of rare and pediatric diseases, where statistical power may be insufficient for confirmation of efficacy if the sample size is small. Although Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-25 Masahiro Kojima

In current clinical trial development, historical information is receiving more attention as it provides utility beyond sample size calculation. Meta-analytic-predictive (MAP) priors and robust MAP priors have been proposed for…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-03 Tianyu Zhan , Yiwang Zhou , Ziqian Geng , Yihua Gu , Jian Kang , Li Wang , Xiaohong Huang , Elizabeth H. Slate

Combination drug therapies hold significant promise for enhancing treatment efficacy, particularly in fields such as oncology, immunotherapy, and infectious diseases. However, designing clinical trials for these regimens poses unique…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-04 Nan Miles Xi , Man Mandy Jin , Lin Wang , Xin Huang

Rare variants are hypothesized to be largely responsible for heritability and susceptibility to disease in humans. So rare variants association studies hold promise for understanding disease. Conversely though, the rareness of the variants…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-06 Lorenzo Masoero , Joshua Schraiber , Tamara Broderick

Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) is a powerful tool to reduce the cost of running a sequence of experiments. When based on the Expected Information Gain (EIG), design optimization corresponds to the maximization of some…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-14 Jacopo Iollo , Christophe Heinkelé , Pierre Alliez , Florence Forbes

We propose to use Bayesian optimization (BO) to improve the efficiency of the design selection process in clinical trials. BO is a method to optimize expensive black-box functions, by using a regression as a surrogate to guide the search.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-20 Jakob Richter , Tim Friede , Jörg Rahnenführer

There is currently a focus on statistical methods which can use historical trial information to help accelerate the discovery, development and delivery of medicine. Bayesian methods can be constructed so that the borrowing is "dynamic" in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-13 Darren A. V. Scott , Alex Lewin

External controls (ECs) from historical trials or real-world data have gained increasing attention as a way to augment hybrid and single-arm trials, especially when balanced randomization is infeasible. While most existing work has focused…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-15 Yujing Gao , Xiang Zhang , Shu Yang

Clinical trials are an instrument for making informed decisions based on evidence from well-designed experiments. Here we consider adaptive designs mainly from the perspective of multi-arm Phase II clinical trials, in which one or more…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-31 Elja Arjas , Dario Gasbarra

Aims: Combinations of treatments can offer additional benefit over the treatments individually. However, trials of these combinations are lower priority than the development of novel therapies, which can restrict funding, timelines and…

We propose a multi-metric flexible Bayesian framework to support efficient interim decision-making in multi-arm multi-stage phase II clinical trials. Multi-arm multi-stage phase II studies increase the efficiency of drug development, but…

Applications · Statistics 2023-12-15 Suzanne M. Dufault , Angela M. Crook , Katie Rolfe , Patrick P. J. Phillips

The design of an experiment can be always be considered at least implicitly Bayesian, with prior knowledge used informally to aid decisions such as the variables to be studied and the choice of a plausible relationship between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-03 David C. Woods , Antony M. Overstall , Maria Adamou , Timothy W. Waite

Basket trials have emerged as a new class of efficient approaches in oncology to evaluate a new treatment in several patient subgroups simultaneously. In this paper, we extend the key ideas to disease areas outside of oncology, developing a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-01 Haiyan Zheng , James M. S. Wason

Most Bayesian response-adaptive designs unbalance randomization rates towards the most promising arms with the goal of increasing the number of positive treatment outcomes during the study, even though the primary aim of the trial is…

Applications · Statistics 2018-07-02 Steffen Ventz , Matteo Cellamare , Sergio Bacallado , Lorenzo Trippa

The use of drug combinations in clinical trials is increasingly common during the last years since a more favorable therapeutic response may be obtained by combining drugs. In phase I clinical trials, most of the existing methodology…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-17 José L. Jiménez , Sungjin Kim , Mourad Tighiouart

Immunotherapy has transformed cancer treatment, yet its delayed therapeutic effects often lead to non-proportional hazards, rendering many conventional phase II designs underpowered and prone to type I error inflation. To address this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Zhongheng Cai , Haitao Pan