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Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in applications requiring factual accuracy, yet their outputs often contain hallucinated responses. While fact-checking can mitigate these errors, existing methods typically retrieve…
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to predict human behavior. We propose a measure for evaluating how much knowledge a pretrained LLM brings to such a prediction: its equivalent sample size, defined as the amount of…
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in statistical research and applications. However,they are also notorious for unreliable or biased information. Here, we explore whether LLMs can be used to improve the precision of…
Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown significant advances in text generation but often lack the reliability needed for autonomous deployment in high-stakes domains like healthcare, law, and finance. Existing approaches rely on external…
This paper presents a comparative analysis evaluating the accuracy of Large Language Models (LLMs) against traditional macro time series forecasting approaches. In recent times, LLMs have surged in popularity for forecasting due to their…
The proliferation of fake news has had far-reaching implications on politics, the economy, and society at large. While Fake news detection methods have been employed to mitigate this issue, they primarily depend on two essential elements:…
Large language models (LLMs) showcase many desirable traits for intelligent and helpful robots. However, they are also known to hallucinate predictions. This issue is exacerbated in robotics where LLM hallucinations may result in robots…
Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at understanding context and qualitative nuances but struggle with the rigorous and transparent reasoning required in high-stakes quantitative domains such as financial trading. We propose a model-first…
Large Language Models (LLMs) are reported to hold undesirable attestation bias on inference tasks: when asked to predict if a premise P entails a hypothesis H, instead of considering H's conditional truthfulness entailed by P, LLMs tend to…
Mitigating social bias in large language models (LLMs) has become an increasingly important research objective. However, existing debiasing methods often incur high human and computational costs, exhibit limited effectiveness, and struggle…
Large vision-language models (LVLMs) achieve impressive performance, yet their internal decision-making processes remain opaque, making it difficult to determine if the success stems from true multimodal fusion or from reliance on unimodal…
We propose a novel method for approximate inference in Bayesian networks (BNs). The idea is to sample data from a BN, learn a latent tree model (LTM) from the data offline, and when online, make inference with the LTM instead of the…
We give a model of how to infer natural language rules by doing experiments. The model integrates Large Language Models (LLMs) with Monte Carlo algorithms for probabilistic inference, interleaving online belief updates with experiment…
Large language models (LLMs) are trained on extensive text corpora, which inevitably include biased information. Although techniques such as Affective Alignment can mitigate some negative impacts of these biases, existing prompt-based…
Many recent papers have studied the development of superforecaster-level event forecasting LLMs. While methodological problems with early studies cast doubt on the use of LLMs for event forecasting, recent studies with improved evaluation…
New Large Language Models (LLMs) become available every few weeks, and modern application developers confronted with the unenviable task of having to decide if they should switch to a new model. While human evaluation remains the gold…
Predictive analysis is a cornerstone of modern decision-making, with applications in various domains. Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful tools in enabling nuanced, knowledge-intensive conversations, thus aiding in complex…
Large Language Models are increasingly deployed for decision-making, yet their adoption in high-stakes domains remains limited by miscalibrated probabilities, unfaithful explanations, and inability to incorporate expert knowledge precisely.…
Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated superior results across a wide range of tasks, and Retrieval-augmented Generation (RAG) is an effective way to enhance the performance by locating relevant information and placing it into the…
When using large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes applications, we need to know when we can trust their predictions. Some works argue that prompting high-performance LLMs is sufficient to produce calibrated uncertainties, while others…