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Probabilistic graphical models are powerful tools which allow us to formalise our knowledge about the world and reason about its inherent uncertainty. There exist a considerable number of methods for performing inference in probabilistic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-11-13 Robert Walecki , Albert Buchard , Kostis Gourgoulias , Chris Hart , Maria Lomeli , A. K. W. Navarro , Max Zwiessele , Yura Perov , Saurabh Johri

Autoregressive models (ARMs) currently hold state-of-the-art performance in likelihood-based modeling of image and audio data. Generally, neural network based ARMs are designed to allow fast inference, but sampling from these models is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-09 Auke Wiggers , Emiel Hoogeboom

This article presents a Bayesian inferential method where the likelihood for a model is unknown but where data can easily be simulated from the model. We discretize simulated (continuous) data to estimate the implicit likelihood in a…

Neural posterior estimation (NPE), a simulation-based computational approach for Bayesian inference, has shown great success in approximating complex posterior distributions. Existing NPE methods typically rely on normalizing flows, which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-14 Tianyu Chen , Vansh Bansal , James G. Scott

Inverse problems, i.e., estimating parameters of physical models from experimental data, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. The Bayesian formulation is the gold standard because it alleviates ill-posedness issues and quantifies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-28 Sharmila Karumuri , Ilias Bilionis

While modern machine learning has transformed numerous application domains, its growing computational demands increasingly constrain scalability and efficiency, particularly on embedded and resource-limited platforms. In practice, neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-30 Bernhard Klein

Modern signal processing (SP) methods rely very heavily on probability and statistics to solve challenging SP problems. SP methods are now expected to deal with ever more complex models, requiring ever more sophisticated computational…

Randomized algorithms, such as randomized sketching or stochastic optimization, are a promising approach to ease the computational burden in analyzing large datasets. However, randomized algorithms also produce non-deterministic outputs,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-13 Zhixiang Zhang , Sokbae Lee , Edgar Dobriban

We present a framework for the efficient computation of optimal Bayesian decisions under intractable likelihoods, by learning a surrogate model for the expected utility (or its distribution) as a function of the action and data spaces. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-13 Justin Alsing , Thomas D. P. Edwards , Benjamin Wandelt

Recent advances in stochastic gradient variational inference have made it possible to perform variational Bayesian inference with posterior approximations containing auxiliary random variables. This enables us to explore a new synthesis of…

Computation · Statistics 2015-05-20 Tim Salimans , Diederik P. Kingma , Max Welling

This paper, which is Part 1 of a two-part paper series, considers a simulation-based inference with learned summary statistics, in which such a learned summary statistic serves as an empirical-likelihood with ameliorative effects in the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-02 Getachew K. Befekadu

Model comparison for the purposes of selection, averaging and validation is a problem found throughout statistics. Within the Bayesian paradigm, these problems all require the calculation of the posterior probabilities of models within a…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-08 Yan Zhou , Adam M Johansen , John A D Aston

The analysis of data from multiple experiments, such as observations of several individuals, is commonly approached using mixed-effects models, which account for variation between individuals through hierarchical representations. This makes…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-05 Henrik Häggström , Sebastian Persson , Marija Cvijovic , Umberto Picchini

Incorporating a deep generative model as the prior distribution in inverse problems has established substantial success in reconstructing images from corrupted observations. Notwithstanding, the existing optimization approaches use gradient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Tianci Liu , Tong Yang , Quan Zhang , Qi Lei

Amortized simulation-based inference (SBI) methods train neural networks on simulated data to perform Bayesian inference. While this strategy avoids the need for tractable likelihoods, it often requires a large number of simulations and has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Manuel Gloeckler , Shoji Toyota , Kenji Fukumizu , Jakob H. Macke

Data augmentation, by the introduction of auxiliary variables, has become an ubiquitous technique to improve convergence properties, simplify the implementation or reduce the computational time of inference methods such as Markov chain…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-30 Maxime Vono , Nicolas Dobigeon , Pierre Chainais

Many modern unsupervised or semi-supervised machine learning algorithms rely on Bayesian probabilistic models. These models are usually intractable and thus require approximate inference. Variational inference (VI) lets us approximate a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-24 Cheng Zhang , Judith Butepage , Hedvig Kjellstrom , Stephan Mandt

We consider the problem of inference in a causal generative model where the set of available observations differs between data instances. We show how combining samples drawn from the graphical model with an appropriate masking function…

Despite the recent success in probabilistic modeling and their applications, generative models trained using traditional inference techniques struggle to adapt to new distributions, even when the target distribution may be closely related…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-17 Mike Wu , Kristy Choi , Noah Goodman , Stefano Ermon

Estimating the predictive uncertainty of a Bayesian learning model is critical in various decision-making problems, e.g., reinforcement learning, detecting adversarial attack, self-driving car. As the model posterior is almost always…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Yufei Cui , Wuguannan Yao , Qiao Li , Antoni B. Chan , Chun Jason Xue
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