Related papers: More extreme Indian monsoon daily rainfall in El N…
Large socio-economic impact of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) extremes motivated numerous attempts at its long range prediction over the past century. However, a rather estimated low potential predictability limit (PPL) of seasonal…
Hourly rainfall extremes cause some of the most destructive weather disasters, yet numerical weather prediction models still struggle to forecast them, and a physical basis for their predictability remains unclear. Here, we identify a…
The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial ocean/atmosphere Pacific. El Ni\~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase and upwelling…
Summer monsoon rainfall over India depends on synoptic-scale phenomena like lows and depressions. India's summer monsoon season 2020 saw above-average rainfall. North Indian Ocean had 12 LPAs in summer 2020 in JJAS season. This monsoon…
The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial Pacific coupled atmosphere/ocean system. El Ni\~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase…
We study the relationship between the El Ni\~no--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon in ensemble simulations from state-of-the-art climate models, the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and the Community…
Along the east coast of India (ECI), local winds are oriented alongshore during the summer monsoon, favouring coastal upwelling. The East India Coastal Current (EICC) during this period converges at 17$^{\circ}$N with northward flow from…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of interannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Depending on the region of maximal warming,…
The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the West African Monsoon (WAM) are dominant drivers of boreal summer precipitation variability in tropical and subtropical regions. Although the regional precipitation dynamics in these two regions have…
Recent debates over the changing correlation between Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have raised inconclusive claims about the stability of the ENSO-Monsoon relationship (EMR) and ISMR…
In contrast to the wet gets wetter and dry gets drier paradigm, here, using observations and climate model simulations, we show that the mean rainfall over the semi-arid northwest parts of India and Pakistan has increased by 10 to 50…
Traditionally, during the monsoon season, more rainfall is received along the Western Ghats, the Northern Gangetic plains, the central belt, and northeast India. However, recently, there has been a shift in this canonical monsoon rainfall…
Scientific basis for long-lead seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) critical for water resource and crop strategy planning is lacking. Using a new predictor discovery method, here we show that the depth of 20 degree…
The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has a decisive influence on India's agricultural output and economy. Extreme deviations from the normal seasonal amount of rainfall can cause severe droughts or floods, affecting Indian food…
Intraseasonal variations of the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) contain alternating extreme rainfall (active) and low rainfall (break) phases impacting agriculture and economies. Their timing and spatial location are dominated by the…
The forecast of Indian monsoon droughts has been predicated on the notion of a season-long rainfall deficit linked to warm anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. Here, we show that in fact nearly half of all droughts over the past century…
The El Ni\~no phenomenon, synonymously El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is an anomalous climatic oscillation in the Equatorial Pacific that occurs once every 3-8 years. It affects the earth's climate on a global scale. Whether it is a…
Extreme rainfall over the Indian monsoon region poses severe societal and infrastructural risks but remains difficult to predict at daily time scales due to stochastic convective triggering and multiscale atmospheric interactions. While…
We revisit long-standing controversies regarding relationships among the all-India rainfall index (AIRI), sub-India summer rainfall variations, El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) using 120-year sea…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of year-to-year variations of the global climate and can lead to extreme weather conditions and disasters in various regions around the world. Here, we review two different…